The Dons Debrief: Ross County (H)
No end in sight
A new year did not bring a fresh start to Aberdeen’s woeful form as they crashed to a 2-1 defeat at home to Ross County. A wonder strike from Akil Wright was canceled out by a fortuitous free-kick in first half stoppage time by Kevin Nisbet in Helsinki-like conditions at Pittodrie. County got their share of the luck via what appeared to be a misplaced cross from Noah Chilvers on the hour mark.
Following Dundee Utd’s win in the derby Aberdeen have now dropped to fourth place in the SPFL Premiership. Next up is a visit to 6th place Motherwell, who will also have the Dons in view, and can close the gap to 4pts.
Line-Ups
Angus MacDonald coming in for Rubezic was expected. In midfield Thelin opted to drop in Leighton Clarkson alongside Shinnie, move McGrath to #10 and bring in Duk to play on the left side. I was hoping Dante Polvara may have gotten an opportunity to start this game in central midfield but we did not see the young American until 11 minutes from time.
Fletcher Boyd, Alfie Stewart and Victor Enem all made the bench. It was nice to see particularly following some interesting remarks from the club regarding the club’s $22M investment in the youth academy expected over the next ten years.
County played a 3-5-1-1. I’ve a working theory that Aberdeen struggle against back threes. There was further evidence presented yesterday.
First Half
In farcical conditions, the Dons would have been lucky to have gone in 1-0 behind. Wright’s goal was a screamer and it should have been 2-0 when Nohan Kenneh went 1v1 with Doohan.
Sometimes you’ve to take into account the environmental factors and it was frustrating to watch how many times Aberdeen failed to take on an opportunity to shoot in the first half. Nisbet’s tame effort, deflected into the goal by Jordan Amissah, was testamant to the challenges the players faced in those conditions and, basic as it might sound, taking a few more speculative shots could well have yielded some positive results.
It was a poor 59 minutes from Aberdeen but it is very hard to analyse. Aside from the difficulties of the conditions you can barely see the ball from the tv coverage.
Second Half
The half opened up with two great chances. The first came from a long-punt up the park, a miscue from a Ross County defender and then an Aberdeen break. Duk’s shot is well saved. It’s another reminder that the Dons look most dangerous in fast breaking situations. Unfortunately, they are struggling to engineer the conditions to create these moments on a consistent basis.
There was a more typical Thelin-era opening. Great play from Duk on the left and a cutback into the expected goals golden zone. Nisbet timed his run well and was unlucky to be denied from a good save from Amissah.
Centre-Back to Right Back
Defensively there were certainly a few talking points on the game-winning goal. It’s possible Mitov would have got a hand to it whilst MacDonald was certainly casual in his closing down of Chilvers to allow a ball into the box.
I wanted to look at the lead up to the goal and the turn over in possession that occurs from the Aberdeen goal kick.
MacDonald is in possession surrounded by players he opts to pass to Devlin who is in a worse position with less options.
Devlin’s attempted pass down the line is blocked, County recover it and Chilvers goes on to score.
This happened continually throughout the game and in most cases led to possession being lost, eventually. This is practically right from kick-off.
MacDonald plays to Devlin who’s immediately squeezed. After the two exchange passes, eventually the ball goes out for an Aberdeen throw-in but it could have been worse.
Just before half-time. You probably can’t see the ball. Going back to Doohan just seems a much better option here.
Devlin gets pushed back and has to play to Doohan.
Early in the second half.
In this situation the two manage to get the ball down the line but Keskinen is under severe pressure and the ball ends up going out for a throw-in.
You get the idea. This is not a MacDonald problem either. Rubezic is guilty at times also. Here’s him against Dundee Utd. Devlin is out of shot but you can guess where he is.
Devlin is able to play the pass down the line but Keskinen’s receiving situation and limited options illustrates the point made earlier.
The larger question is whether Thelin wants this pass to happen (from RCB to RB) or whether this is players being asked to build out from the back and then passing the buck. There’s a reason this pass is almost always on it’s because the right back receiving in the corner is easy to press and teams want to set that trap.
As has been mentioned in previous recaps, I’ve nothing against playing out from the back. The alternative in this case is MacDonald just goes long and we’ve seen who ineffective that’s been. However’s its more to identify that there’s still a lot of work to be done on developing patterns to beat the press and decision making needs to be smarter. I think MacDonald put Devlin under pressure unnecessarily on more than one occasion,
There was more evidence in the United game (despite the above image) between Rubezic, Mitov and Molloy of keeping the ball central for the right moment, or having Nilsen drop in between the two centre-backs to allow the full-backs to push up higher. We’ve seen how Celtic invert the full-backs in the build up to good effect and watch five minutes of any of the big leagues and you’ll see some interesting rotations on show.
If the team is going to be a team that builds out from the back there needs to be more to it than keeper - centre-back - full-back - launch.
Wing Men
After the United game I wondered if Jimmy would go with two wingers over two #10s. In the end he kinda did both and as County retreated we witnessed again the importance of wide men to execute Jimmy’s overloads in the box philosophy. As noted earlier Duk laid one on a plate for Nisbet before Morris (on the right) and Keskinen on the left did similar in the dying stages.
Nisbet deserves credit for getting on the end of chances, he certainly seems to be able to time his runs better than Sokler but at least two out of the three were great chances.
Keskinen definitely seems more comfortable on the left and I think we’re seeing some steady progress there. Duk continues to be a threat and his contributions have been a net positive this year. Morris is clearly getting closer attention than he did earlier in the season and one of the next phases of his development will be to use the doubling up on him to the team’s advantage.
Outside of this there were a lot of poor balls into the box that were easily dealt with by Ross County. For 22 minutes following MacDonald’s back header attempt until Ambrose sliding attempt, the Dons did not register a single shot on goal.
I do wonder if it’s harder to create overloads in the box against 3/5 back at the systems with the box crowded and less space to play balls between centre-back and full-back.
Summary
This was not a game unlike either of the Dundee teams at home. Level at the break having not played brilliantly. It looks that way from a stats perspective too but things just aren’t quite going for the team currently. Nisbet’s sclaffy effort, I thought might be the proverbial ‘one in of the arse’ to get the team going and when Duk’s shot looked goalbound just after half-time it seemed like this run would be coming to an end.
Alas no. Everyone’s got their own opinion on why things have dropped off and despite there being a general acceptance that the team was overperforming earlier in the season, there’s a real concern with how things are slipping away.
Swiss Ramble
On another note, Aberdeen got the Swiss Ramble treatment this week. The famous football blogger went through the clubs accounts and gives a pretty good insight for someone with a pretty basic football economics understanding. To see the full report you need to subscribe but there is an option of a free 7-day trial.
The biggest takeaway is that the Dons need either a big player sale or a European campaign to break even each year. In an ideal world we can be doing both and if we can do it consistently there’s a platform for the club to grow. I think the strategy is sound and though on the field it’s been one crisis after another, there appears to be steady progress off the field.
I’m impressed with Thelin’s belief in his methods, and with the appointment of his Recruitment Director, it’s clear he has been given a lot of support to achieve in those two prongs of the on-field strategy. Personally I’m happy to be in for the long haul as I think the upside is potentially high, but I’m only basing that on his succcess in Sweden competitively and with players sales.
This is the last year of guaranteed group stage football (assuming Celtic or Rangers win the Cup) and it just feels like an opportunity too good to miss and the accounts show that too.
Motherwell Away
This does not look like fun, however they have had a wee drop in form too and Lennon Miller will be absent. Nilsen, Rubezic and Palaversa all may return and I would not be surprised if all three start.
Some day Aberdeen will win again.
COYR