The Dons Debrief: Kilmarnock (A)
Blue Christmas
In the interest of newsletter integrity it was important to get something out on this game but it certainly took some time to go back to the scene of the crime and ruin my festive cheer for a second time. There’s not a lot of time to digest this recap before today’s fixture away to Dundee United. Hopefully, this is just a fleeting reminder of a miserable 90 minutes before the team turns things around at Tannadice and we begin the New Year with renewed optimism.
General Thoughts
The biggest disappointment was that this just seemed so inevitable. The last few weeks have highlighted a simple game plan to nullify Aberdeen. Press high, force long, test the defence with balls into the box and that’s certainly what Kilmarnock did. And they did it very well.
Yet teams have done parts of this before now. Dundee at Dens springs to mind, even Motherwell home and most of all Celtic away. On those occasions Aberdeen defended the box with intensity, aggression and concentration. Yes there were the brain lapses so it wasn’t all perfect but under siege there seemed to be a strong core to the backline. Not any more.
For a detailed review of the goals, I recommended Andrew Budge’s piece on Ally Begg TV that you can find right here.
There have been poor performances this season but on review, pieces of positivity, indicators of a plan being implemented but not quite there. Even last week against Hibs, there was some nice attacking play and on another day Rubezic doesn’t miskick, Topi’s shot goes in etc.
But Thursday? It’s hard to find much to cling on to. It was a miserable performance and as has been noted by the manager, the pundits and pretty much everyone on social media, Aberdeen were outfought and outworked. Tactical plans go out the window when you can’t take care of these non-negotiables.
Despite that, let’s take a quick look.
What was the plan?
Last week against Hibs we saw the opportunities a high press allowed Aberdeen in behind and it seemed that this was the plan at Rugby Park with Ambrose and Duk added to the frontline. And we saw a couple of glimpses of the potential. Here’s a long ball mid-way through the first-half.
Apologies for the blurry view but hopefully you can make out Keskinen and Duk 1v1 against the two Killie full-backs. Unfortunately Ambrose was unable to win much in the air (2/7 aerial duels). Nor was he able to hold much in and he struggled to compete against Mayo.
On the opposite side, all reports and apps showing Killie playing a 4-4-2. Ergo, Aberdeen’s numerical advantage would be in the central midfield area. With Watson and Polworth pressing high, McGrath should be the outlet.
When these opportunities did present themselves on transition, Aberdeen did not have the quality to find McGrath, or the Irishman did not move enough to create a passing angle. See below Shinnie’s pass being intercepted by the excellent Watson.
However, Killie were not strict in their structure and they seemed to adapt into a 3-5-2 when Aberdeen were building up with Wright pushing up on to McGrath and leaving Mayo to deal with Ambrose.
Roll the tape back a few seconds on the first image above (Ambrose flicking on). Watson is tight on Nilsen, Polworth has his eye on Shinnie and Wright has squeezed up, ready to jump on McGrath as soon as the pass is played.
As another interesting point, we can see how Aberdeen adapted their structure to try and beat the man-to-man marking of Killie by flipping the triangle and moving Nilsen to the base. It didn’t really amount to much by virtue of the fact the forwards struggled to combine or hold the ball on a consistent basis, and the ball in behind is a bit harder on the plastic pitch. But it might be something to keep an eye on moving forward as the Dons look to evade man-marking strategies.
But most of all Killie were just really quick to press Aberdeen players and the Dons didn’t really have the quality to combine quickly to take advantage of their over-commitment.
Progressing the Ball
On the ball the biggest issue on Thursday and over the last few weeks has been the challenges in progressing the ball.
The team is struggling to go through teams via Nilsen in particular who’s influence seems to be waning as opposition teams pay closer attention to him and perhaps the sands of time.
Back in the Hearts game I identified three methods the team seemed to be using to move the ball forward:
Number 1: Progress the ball through the left side, retain the ball in that zone and then use combinations to create a crossing or cutback opportunity.
Number 2: Use the overload on the left side to create an opportunity to switch the play to the right
Number 3. Bring out through a centre-back or a dropping midfielder and by pass midfield and find the forward for a quick combination with the attacking midfielder.
The first couple did not really appear on Thursday as the team struggled to maintain any real possession in the attacking half, bar a wee spell in the first half and later in the game when it was all over.
What the team seems to be spending more time on is #3. The issue is, as identified above, they can’t seem to make it stick, and unlike against Hibs, the opposition were quicker to recover second balls. Aberdeen’s passing map against Killie is a pretty clear indicator that they’re really struggling to get the ball into those key areas in attacking midfield.
Thoughts On United
I’d be surprised if United are as defensive as they were at Pittodrie and as conservative as Goodwin is, I’m sure he’s got a waft of the sweet taste of revenge that McInnes enjoyed on Boxing Day and probably wants his fill too. United have maintained their good form, and a win today would see them within three points of the Dons.
I think we have to take confidence that surely it cannot be worse than Thursday, and hope as Jimmy suggested in the beyond awkward interview below, that this is the lowest point.
I’m not sure what the answer is personally. I still have faith in Jimmy and recognise he’s trying to build something for the long term. Centre-Forward to me seems like a major issue but their doesn’t seem a ready-made solution. At the moment, Aberdeen are struggling to play through, play round, or play over their opponent and the last one seems the easiest to do. You just need someone to play the ball to.
Defensively there’s a real crisis. The obvious solution would be to shore up Robson-style and go to a 3 at the back but this would not seem to fit into Jimmy’s long-term thinking. He seems to be fairly tied to the 4-2-3-1 and unlikely to tinker for short-term results. And after all, we’ve seen that movie before a few times now and the short-term fix, generally, is just that.
And finally, it’s hard to argue that the midfield could not do with some freshning up. Palaversa surely deserves a start at some point and Polvara looked good against Hibs. Would I expect both to play today. No. If I’m putting money on it, it will be Shinnie, Nilsen and Clarkson but let’s wait and see.
My feelings are more positive than last week. I think we’ll see a reaction and an improved performance but it will still likely be a game that hangs in the balance, as most Aberdeen games have this season.
Hopefully the luck of the Irish has run out just like the Guinness.