The Dons Debrief: Hibs (H)
Bah. Humbug
The Christmas spirit dampened in us all on Saturday night as the Dons extended their winless run to six games.
In a strange game, the sharpness of Aberdeen’s attack looked to have returned with goalscorer Topi Keskinen a particular bright-spark. Unfortunately, as we all know, familiar defensive frailties were also present, and the elaborate long-ball down the middle tactic, yet again proved too much to handle for the Dons rearguard.
General Thoughts
The above graphic shows some of the flaws of putting too much stock in xG, at least at an individual game level. Hibs created nothing after Boyle’s goal but they seemed fairly happy with this, just like the Dons were comfortable defending leads earlier in the season.
It does illustrate the strange nature of the game in that it was really determined by some mistakes at key moments, some quality from the opposition and some bad luck. There were some good chances in the second half that really could have changed the complexion of the last 20 minutes had one been taken. I just don’t know how much stock can be taken from that, given the dynamic of the match at that point.
The defensive lapses are a recurring theme and whether the issue is communication, concentration or confidence, we’re just conceding too many from silly errors.
It’s really hard to legislate for Rubezic’s clean air swipe. The second goal was a great finish although the defending could have been better in the lead up and the third was another giveaway but also a sharp transition break from Hibs. They’ll bemoan the mistake to allow Clarkson to find Keskinen in for our goal too, I’m sure.
Gray’s Anatomy
As expected Hibs continued with their 3-4-2-1 but they added more mobility with Martin Boyle as one of the two strikers and Josh Campbell as the #10. This helped them execute their higher press with a bit more energy than at Easter Road. It was a similar format with one of the deeper midfielders jumping on to Shinnie whilst Campbell picked up Nilsen.
The biggest adjustment on the Aberdeen side was Jamie McGrath playing on the right of the attacking three. He did similar things as he does when he plays on the left, tucking inside and playing like a second number 10, especially as Clarkson drifted over to the left quite often.
Playing out from the Back
This has been a hobby horse of mine for most of the season, so I apologise for retreading the same ground once more, but I still remain intrigued as to how Aberdeen will play long-term and what this ‘identity’ Jimmy speaks of, really is. And this was a really good game to look at as Hibs pressed high and well and we heard some exasperation from the crowd.
I mentioned the interview with Nuno de Almeida on RedTV in the preview, here’s the full quote regarding the Aberdeen style of play:
“The game starts with the ball on the goalkeeper, doesn’t start with a long ball and holding. We can do that but we want to build from behind. That’s why right you are understanding some teams are putting a lot of pressure on us because they understand one of our strengths is to have the ball.”
Nuno de Almeida (Aberdeen Head of Recruitment)
Personally I have no problem with the team wanting to build out from the back. We’ve certainly been witness to some agricultural football over the last few years. I also don’t feel that Thelin’s style lurches into sterile side to side football which can often be a hallmark of ‘possession’ style coaches.
However we’ve seen two different methods in the last two games to try and counter this ‘strength’. One of which (St. Johnstone) involved the centre-backs having time on the ball but no real options and Saturday’s game which saw a higher press forcing Rubezic, Molloy and Doohan to make quicker decisions.
Comparing the two matches, Aberdeen looked more dangerous against Hibs than against Saints, which leads me to think that they may want to encourage the press in order to take advantage of the space in behind. Here’s a rough graphic of how Hibs pressed.
It’s not always that clear cut of course. Alongside the challenge we can also see the potential for Aberdeen in behind and when they did go long they seemed to aim for that zone with McGrath and Sokler, like in this example below.
What they weren’t really able to do all that often was retain possession from the long ball. Of Doohan’s 10 passes beyond his own third, only three found his Aberdeen target and even then there’s no guarantee those were retained following the initial touch.
But I’m not even sure that was all that important as they had success on the counter-press after losing the first ball. Here’s an early opportunity to get Keskinen in behind.
This applied to more than just goal-kicks and was a strength during the first-half. Here’s Keskinen’s goal in which the ball was turned over, Nilsen recovered, found MacKenzie whose pass is on its way to Clarkson below.
You can see again that box-shape in the midfield (the 4-2-2-2) with McGrath tucking in to create a 2v1 in the midfield. After the goal and just before his shot, we had another situation, although this was from Shinnie and McGrath connecting in the build-up phase.
That makes me think Thelin is looking to coax the press and play beyond it. I think you can see there’s some scope here for future potential and this would fit with the Elfsborg model of longer passes and sharp counter-attacks and transitions of which we’ve seen some examples thus far this season. But I can’t think the idea is to lump it forward and hope the team can react quickest to create an attack.
I’m a little underwhelmed with the short passing from the back. Aside from a few occasions early on in the season when Shinnie pulled out to right back, or more recently, Nilsen dropping in to make a back three, there’s not been too many elaborate or clever rotations or movements to open up play and to be honest both of those movements are fairly standard practice in the top leagues.
As teams are adjusting to the Dons, we see this type of situation too often where Devlin receives under tight pressure in the corner.
Here’s the breakdown of some of the back four’s passing metrics.
We can see how a lot of their passing numbers are enhanced, as we all know by the types of pass being played. 51% of the time when one of the back four played a forward pass. This is a compliment to Hibs but it’s also a lot easier to coach players to press versus passing, and that’s why so few teams in the SPFL opt for the latter. Clearly the team favoured building up on the left side.
Goal kicks
What tends to stick in the mind are goal kicks rather than recycling play through the keeper. Aberdeen had six goal kicks on Saturday. Here’s the breakdown of number of passes and where they lost possession.
From the first goal kick, they were able to create this attacking situation after Keskinen and Clarkson interchanged positions.
Ultimately McGrath made the smart decision to delay the pass slightly but Sokler did not have the pace to outrun Bushiri. They were also able to generate a good scoring chance on 52 minutes, with a good passing move.
However on the second, third, fourth and sixth goal kicks Hibs were able to win possession back and came close to scoring on via a Cadden header at the back post on the fourth situation. Effectively, Hibs looked as dangerous on Aberdeen goal kicks, as Aberdeen did.
Moving Forward
I liked Jimmy’s comment about new signings not being quick fixes. That the team will get nowhere if they don’t improve on the training ground. With that in mind if the team is to be successful with building from the keeper, I think we need the following.
More co-ordinated rotations in midfield to evade man-markers. Celtic always seem to find a way to do this for the most part although even they struggle at times. There is some things to build on and when the team gets the ball moving quickly, without allowing the opposition to setup, they look much better. Increased mobility in those positions might help here?
Patience. Sometimes a press moves on the second pass, often the dreaded hospital ball from centre back to full back (as shown above). But if you can go back or inside, then a combination can be worked to break out the other side. Applies to the fans too.
Someone to hold the ball up or at least win flick ons for the longer passes. Nisbet and Sokler have failed to manage this.
More pace. Keskinen was the only man who troubled Hibs with speed, until Ambrose came on. If we do want to take advantage of space in behind we need speed in one more position.
Two More Games in 2024
The Ghosts of Christmas past lie in wait and there will be no friendly festive welcome on offer in either of the next two fixtures. On Boxing Day, Derek will be licking his lips and it won’t be because of the leftover turkey in the fridge. That match is as likely to be as ugly as your jumper.
De Almeida spoke about learning about Scottish Football, well Thursday is a simple test for all the coaching staff. Any Aberdeen fan could write the Kilmarnock game plan. High press, man to man marking in the midfield, forcing long balls, showering Molloy and Rubezic with big punts and scaring the life out of Ross Doohan on corners. Merry Christmas you filthy animals.
So let’s see how the team prepares and responds. Thelin’s got plenty of credit in the bank and giving him the time he needs and supporting him during that process is vital. However, there does feel an inevitability around the Boxing Day clash that’s hard to shake off.
Two defeats to close out the year would be a real downer and would open the door to the chasing pack but if the team could grab 4pts it would shift the momentum ahead of an important January.
COYR and Merry Christmas to one and all.