The Dons Debrief: Hibs (A)
Rollercoaster of Pain
Aberdeen gained, lost, gained and lost again the three points down Leith way on Tuesday night against Hibernian. Ester Sokler’s superb overhead kick looked to have sealed the win in a remarkable injury time period but alas not and some poor defending led to Rocky Bushiri grabbing an equaliser in the 96th minute.
The Dons have only picked up four out of possible nine and have one win in four. 12 goals conceded. There are grumblings on player selections. A mini crisis has ensued. With the Jambos at Tynecastle, Celtic at home and then an improving St. Johnstone in the next three games, things will not get any easier. To quote our Scandi-noir officer in chief: “This is Football.” Scottish Football to be exact. We might be entering an unwelcome period of reality. Isn’t this meant to be the most magical time of the year?
Line-Ups
The biggest adjustment was that Hibs switched to a back three. The Dons were in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape with Duk, Nisbet and Keskinen restored to the line-up.
A New Press
The first big shoutout of the night goes to the Hibs camera positioning which provided a much better perspective of the field compared to the SMISA stadium on Saturday.
For pressing fans like myself, it was also exciting to see Aberdeen change up their out-of-possession shape. They essentially just stayed in their regular positions with McGrath staying behind Nisbet as opposed to pushing up alongside him. The wide men were then charged with the task of pushing on the Left and Right centre-backs respectively. See the image below.
Did it work? There were very few short passes through the lines from Hibs. I don’t know if that’s been a central part of their style of play this season but they went long. A lot. On occasion they were able to pick up second balls but there was very little football played from Hibs progressively in that half. Not that the Dons were much better
The biggest challenge they caused was through the movement of Youan and Hoillet drifting wide in Jamie McGrath style zones. The former was particularly dangerous with his running and came close to putting Hibs ahead with a stinging shot.
First Half Attacking Struggles
There were some promising attacks down the left-side again with Duk and MacKenzie combining well and McGrath getting into good positions for the cut-back. Jack put a ball in for Nisbet right on half-time but he failed to test the keeper. Keskinen did a lot of running but his output amounted to little and Nisbet was not involved at all really.
It was one of the most direct halves of football this season. The Dons completed 120 passes in the first half compared to 247 versus St. Mirren. They attempted 22 long balls and only completed 5 (23%).
Hibs did not press particularly aggressively but they did have bodies up the field and Hoillet’s presence in that #10 zone did seem to have an effect on Aberdeen’s build up…
Our Boy Sivert
I almost choked on my Corn Flakes on Wednesday morning when I looked at Sivert Nilsen’s pass stats and saw he only completed 28 out of 42 passes. That’s a number of passes similar to what he did in both games v Celtic. Most glaring was his accuracy of 67%. Using the data, I have available (going back to 2015), this is in Nilsen’s top 6 worst ever scores. Not only is it his lowest passing accuracy since he joined the Dons, by a good chunk, it’s his worst since Brann were defeated 2-0 by Viking in October of 2021 (62% that day in case you forgot). Maybe he did get concussed on Saturday.
Given that Nilsen has been a highly decorated and key component of our successful start to the season, it suggests the Hibees did a job on him.
Here’s his touch map v St. Mirren.
And vs Hibs.
A few teams have tried to man mark him earlier in the season and had limited success and though Hibs did not do this per-se they did a good job of denying him service. You can see below that Hoillet’s got a keen eye on the Norwegian. Mitov doesn’t have too many options to go short without putting someone under pressure.
Here’s his passing combinations with teammates.
Critics will identify that Aberdeen lost to St. Mirren and drew with Hibs but I think it’s fair to say that Nilsen has been a key component in Thelin’s attempts to establish control of the game thus far this season. There have been efforts to man mark him this season and they have generally failed but this sets a concerning precedent. The good news is, after that Viking game in 2021, he responded with a 91% score in the next match.
Corners and The Second Phase
I don’t want to get all Ange Postecoglu on you but I do struggle to generate enthusiasm for set-pieces however their importance in the game cannot be diminished even more so since the data-nerds got their grubby mitts around them in the last few years.
I already mentioned my concern prior to the Celtic League Cup semi, and it gave me (and the others who mentioned this) no pleasure to be proved wrong. We lost another goal on Saturday from a corner and were in constant danger on Tuesday night. Hibs put in some really good deliveries with Mitov looking especially shaky. We were lucky not to concede from headers directly in the first-half.
See the data below on where the Dons rank for Set Piece Expected Goals Against. Yes that’s us bottom of the league. The bad news is this doesn’t include Tuesday’s game.
I’ve seen a lot of concerns over zonal marking and the number of players being pulled back to defend the corners, which leaves us without an outlet and is often resulting in us having to defend more than one phase of play. As a perfect example, see Hibs first goal. Aberdeen fail to clear, Hibs can recycle and the goal goes in via a deflection from a crowded box. Bad luck yes, but not entirely without cause.
I will try and take a look at Elfsborg’s corner approach. I expect it might be similar. Will report back.
The Second Act Once More
The Dons have now scored only one of their last 15 goals in the first half (stat courtesy of Here We Go). It was again a much better second half in which the team established more control of the ball and created more of their progressive attacking moves.
The addition of Clarkson added another footballer to the mix and he interchanged with McGrath, and dropped in to receive the ball in deeper positions when it was on. Duk put a bit more pressure on the Hibs back four but also struggled to retain the ball (see here for further reading).
We also saw Devlin move inside more often as Hibs doubled up on Morris. Speaking of which.
Shady-Mo Does it Again
One wonders if the club were too hasty letting Jayden Richardson and Anthony Stewart out the door in the summer, given what has been achieved with Shayden Morris by the current coaching team. The Pape Gueye redemption-arc was quite spectacular but Morris is quickly, really quickly, becoming one of the most dangerous players in Scottish football (outside of the St. Mirren squad).
It’s not really a question who is having a bigger impact on the games between he and Keskinen. It’s more around what the best way to use Morris to the team’s advantage is. He now has four assists to his name and has been instrumental off the bench against Ross County, Motherwell, Dundee Utd, the Rangers, Dundee and now Hibs. Even on Saturday, in the first half when he received the ball, he was behind all that was good from an Aberdeen attacking sense but it does feel nice to have him in the back pocket when things go wrong.
On Tuesday he made an immediate impression, setting up the first goal (though he doesn’t get credit for it). Nilsen (was better in second half) plays a great pass, knowing full well Morris can get on to it. Then we have the assist for Sokler’s brilliant goal. A cross he definitely meant to play behind the Slovenian so he could go with the overhead kick.
Just like Bojan Miovski, we can only thank Jim Goodwin for discovering him. The worry now is whether we can keep him.
Injury Time Madness
I don’t know if I can add much to this conversation. The second goal, yes, silly foul from Shinnie but these things do happen. It’s a great free-kick. And let’s be honest, our second goal was a gift.
The third though. So many little things. Players going into zones they shouldn’t be. Letting forwards run off them, not tracking back. I can understand the euphoria, we all thought the game was won. And, this is a team that has defended the box under severe pressure late in games very well but it’s just another big punt up the park and another second phase and it cost us three great points.
We need to talk about Gavin (and Slobodan)
It would be remiss not to discuss the growing concern around the two centre-backs. Relative to the above (on Morris), I don’t think it is smart to write anyone off, nor not give younger players room to make mistakes. Anyone who has watched the last few games, and the season as a whole, will be able to form their own opinions. I’m not sure I need to pile on.
Molloy has made a number of errors that have led to goals or penalties and fresh with the memory of Saturday’s opener it is difficult not to have major concerns. Especially as we go to Tynecastle on Sunday. You know what’s coming there.
It does seem that opposing coaches have cottoned on to an increasing fragility. Handily for most of them, the solution involves doing what they love the most - getting balls quickly into the box, or playing long balls in behind.
The Irishman has more pace and is a better passer, whilst Rubezic is better in the air, so there’s a semblance of a complementary relationship. One of the simple issues is when Rubezic loses his head momentarily (see third goal), or is up against pacy forwards e.g. Youan and if Molloy is up against a big striker in the air.
In the Queen’s Park game, Jack Milne was preferred to Richard Jensen due to him being a right footer. Jimmy made a point of referencing this in his pre-match interview. Therefore, I don’t see Molloy being dropped as it would involve a bigger change in the team’s build-up to put a right footer on left. McDonald for Rubezic could be an option, but I don’t think Jimmy is the type to bow to pressure to make a change. I’ve also been a wrong numerous times this season.
Summary
A trip to Easter Road is not meant to be easy and the team should be commended for overturning a deficit on another occasion this season. However, it was a game that was won and the loss of the three points has definitely seen a mood shift over the last few days.
We expected some bumps in the road and we’ve two tough games on the horizon but that does not takeaway from the brilliant start Jimmy Thelin has made to his Aberdeen tenure and the joy and optimism he has brought us. It’s Thanksgiving today in the US and it’s custom to say what your thankful for. So thanks Jimmy, the coaches and the players. And if you made it this far, thanks to you for reading.
Sunday will be tough. I think expectations will be tempered but Hearts are bottom of the league for a reason. They play away on Thursday night. All is not lost. Preview of the game on Sunday morning.
COYR
I'm enjoying these...awesome insight.
I hope you were taking the piss with the comment about being thankful to Goodwin