The Dons Debrief: Celtic (A)
More than a Thelin
Aberdeen’s 100% record is gone but they passed the stiffest of tests at Parkhead on Saturday. It was a performance of bravery, teamwork, resilience, and quality. But the word that sticks with me most from Saturday is belief. The belief our manager and players showed to begin the game. The belief to get themselves back in it at 2-0 down when most had written them off (me included). The belief that they could defend their box when the clock reached 100mins. And the belief we all have in Jimmy Thelin.
We told ourselves that Saturday would answer a lot of questions and we got some answers, but many still remain (at least for me). There is still a lot of variation in how Aberdeen approach games as we witnessed on Saturday. I don’t think this will change anytime soon but the jigsaw puzzle is starting to take shape and a picture beginning to emerge.
Building for the Future: First Half Passing
The big debate was whether Palaversa would start and take the place of Clarkson but Thelin opted not to change the team that beat Hearts. This was his first brave move of the day. The second was when the game kicked off and Aberdeen went short from Mitov.
Building out of the back is not easy and though the Dons were able to make the first couple of passes it was often Mitov to Rubezic to Devlin and then out of play. They looked more comfortable on the left side with McGrath providing an option for the centre backs. See below.
The home side stood off enough to tempt Aberdeen to make the pass but were ready to step in quickly when the ball went into specific zones. These patterns of play need to be rehearsed consistenly with different choices made based on the pressure of the opponent, as Celtic showed when they had the ball. They’ll only improve with repetition on the training field and in games.
The Dons did get some luck with the second ball. This pass below from McGrath did not amount to anything more than a throw-in high up the field but it was an early green light they could get in behind Celtic when the ball was turned over.
Celtic Goals
It was a midifeld transition on the other side of the ball that did for the Dons for Celtic’s first. Rubezic actually pulls out a bit wider as Nilsen receives to provide an option and if the Norwegian had opened up and switched the play, Aberdeen may have been able to build out the other side. Instead it’s a giveaway and the Montenegrin is not in position to provide cover.
There is some indecision from Mitov, but whether he would have got it I’m not sure. Kyogo cuts it back and Hatate finishes emphatically. These are the risks of playing expansively.
The second goal is less swift but still comes from Aberdeen being willing to possess the ball deep in their own half. See below just before the pass. Shinnie perhaps could drop in more or Rubezic pull out a bit more. However, Mitov’s decison to try and hit Devlin and effectively take six Celtic players out of the game is not a bad one and avoids putting two players under pressure in their own box.
In the end the pass was a bit heavy and Valle wins the header. Aberdeen then have to move from in-possession to out of posession. There’s a mistake at a key moment from Molloy, the result of a mad scramble to get back in position and clear danger and the ball ends up in the back of the net.
Possession and Penetration
An impressive part of the game was Aberdeen’s response to the second goal. For the next 10 minutes the Dons actually edged posession and there were some extended passing sequences following the two Celtic goals. On 31 minutes the Dons kept the ball for close to a minute, making 17 passes which finished with a Keskinen cross across goal.
I flagged up an image from the Hearts game in the preview and it did seem like part of the plan was to try and hit the striker with Celtic having commited numbers forward. This is what led to Clarkson’s chance on 34 minutes. Nilsen has the ball deep in the Aberdeen half and though there is pressure he still has time to look up and find a forward pass.
Scales then goes tight to Nisbet, and the striker is able to flick it on to Clarkson with Keskinen lurking inside Valle. This up-back and through combo and positioning is almost a carbon copy of the Hearts opportunity.
The through pass isn’t brilliant and Keskinen has work to do but it lands for Clarkson and he has to score yet he fluffs his lines. At that time it felt like we had just ticked another box in the usual Aberdeen trip to Celtic Park. Concede soft goal - tick. Miss great chance - tick.
We know about Jimmy’s quick counter attacks, but you can also exploit gaps in the opposition defence by baiting them into your half. Possessing the ball in your defensive third is not just about avoiding the 50/50 of a long punt, it can create space further up the field if the opponent is willing to engage. I think this is just another means Thelin uses to try and create his ideal conditions for attack.
But it comes with risks and the Dons then get caught again near the end of the half with Nilsen, Rubezic and Mitov all culpable. They are lucky not to concede another before half-time.
What do the numbers say?
Aberdeen’s first half passing performance in terms of numbers was comparable with their games against St. Mirren at home (186 total passes, 141 accurate, 51 in the opponents half) and Dundee away (190 total passes, 145 accurate and 53 in the opponents half). On Saturday it was 185 total passes, 148 accurate and 43 in the Celtic half. For comparison on their last visits to Celtic Park, Rangers made 220 passes, 176 accurate, 63 in opponents half. The rest of the league doesn’t come close.
So the conclusion here is that Aberdeen came to play against Celtic but are probably not refined enough to play through their high press consistently. The final ball and combination also still needs to be cleaner. I appreciate this was not most people’s takeaway from the peformance on Saturday but what I hope I showed is that there were elements that over time can be improved that will provide the Dons with more tools in their arsenal to create goalscoring chances.
Pressing
Aberdeen stuck to their 4-4-2 pressing shape and remained compact throughout, keeping their line of confrontation around the half-way line and funnelling Celtic into the areas they were comfortable with them having the ball in. McGregor continued to drift and Clarkson and Nisbet did a pretty good job of denying service to him.
Celtic, were prepared for this and Rodgers even mentioned it in his pre-game interview. So they had a different rotations, with Hatate pulling into spaces left by Valle, and Engels pulling out to the right side on the other wing. From there the full-backs made a lot of underlapping runs and caused Aberdeen a lot of problems.
At half-time, Nisbet and Clarkson were removed for Sokler and Duk. Thelin sacrificed a bit of creativity but he injected real pace and energy into the frontline, and we got McGrath in the #10 role. It was another bold move but why wait until 60 minutes to see if you can hang on and maybe nick one from a corner?
When comparing the end of the first half and the start of the second half, the starting points of pressure are not too dissimilar, it’s just a bit passive in the first 45. It reminded me a little of the St. Mirren game when Thelin turned up the dial at half-time and we moved a little further up and pressed a harder. This is epitomised by Keskinen a minute into the second period who makes a hard run at Scales and gets right in his face (see images below).
The Dons were just quicker at closing down and forcing Celtic to speed up. It wasn’t perfect and in the example above Hatate gets the ball and is able to turn and start an attack but it defintely had an impact and, directly or indirectly, resulted in two goals.
The first goal is a mix of all of the best Thelin attributes we’ve heard, and seen. Good pressure to force a turnover. A comfort and confidence on the ball to pass out of the back (see it’s not all bad) and a rapid exchange and through pass to send Sokler clean through. Again the numbers are favourable for the Dons. 3 on 3 as we can see below (Duk’s hiding behind Trusty).
The passes are brilliant - Nilsen with his trademark chip and McGrath cutting through the ball, adding some spin so it sits up beautifully for Sokler. The Slovenian has missed a few of those in his time but he finished this one brilliantly.
The second goal, though a mistake from Maeda is a great example of smart pressure. Sokler just changes his tempo on Scales to add a little nervousness and cuts off any inside pass. And everyone else is tight. Maeda should make that pass to McGregor but it is still a narrow window and the Celtic captain would have been squeezed hard when he received it.
Celtic’s expansive positioning in possession creates so many challenges but a lot of opportunites too. Johnson is so high and Duk is ready to so explode again into that space and create a 3v2. There’s a bit of luck to Shinnie’s finish but the combination to set up the chance when the Celtic defence had recovered was superb.
It’s high pressing again that leads to the throw-in that leads to the free-kick for the goal that never was from Duk. Sokler’s angle and pace of press leads to Schmeichel’s indecision. On another day, that could have been a goal.
Do the numbers back up the pressure?
Ehm. Not really. This is one where the eye-test doesn’t really match up with the data. At least that which I have available to try and measure this. According to WhoScored’s recovery map (see below), the Dons only forced a loss of possesion in the Celtic half once (Arne Engels, 6th minute). I’m not sure what the Maeda pass for the goal comes under or indeed the Schmeichel mistake just mentioned but it’s not noted below.
Additionally, Aberdeen’s Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA) was its second highest of the season at 16.03 (just behind the 16.11 of the Dundee game). And the Dons according to the numbers, only made one high recovery, all game.
Leaving aside some potential error in the numbers I think this can probably be explained by being a bit too passive in the first half, though they kept a decent shape and though they were very aggressive in the first part of the second half, they retreated as the game wore in.
But just as before, wee pieces of the jigsaw that can be built on over the season.
The Remains of the Game
Two things were true in the last period of the match. Aberdeen continued to look dangerous on the break with Shayden Morris having the best chance to snatch a winner. But they also could have done better with the ball. Following the Shinnie goal, they only completed 21 passes (42% success rate). That’s in close to 40 minutes of football.
We were promised Thelinball, so did Aberdeen purposely give Celtic the ball so they could try hit them on the break?
I’m not sure. I think it’s hard to correlate Jimmy’s first-half and comments pre-match about being good on the ball for it to be a complete flick of the switch in approach. It also fails to acknowlege the quality of Celtic who added energy from the bench and are just, generally, a really good team.
There’s also the effort Aberdeen extended and the natural desire to loss aversion. The truth is probably somewhere in between; that Aberdeen were willing to soak up pressure, that they had a threat on the break but that they could have done better with the ball to releive the intense pressure.
But of course I could be wrong. We know he has previous for this and it was exciting. It did feel like one clearance or misplaced pass could set Aberdeen on their way.
Bodies on the Line
You’d have to say the one area where Aberdeen look close to the finished article and it’s clear it’s something they’ve building on is their defending in the box.
When Jimmy talked about creating overloads in the box, I thought he meant in the opponent’s, but maybe he meant both. The Dons ceded the wide areas and defended for their lives but we’ve seen this before. This point was won on the playing fields of Pittodrie (Motherwell) and Dens. Aberdeen were willing to cede pressure in those games and see them out and this has helped build their resiliency. If only we knew that at the time.
One thing that we do know for sure that Thelin values, is team spirit. There has not been a metric yet developed to measure it but we it can be seen in Duk’s clearance off the line in the final seconds. In the countless clearances from Molloy and Rubezic in the air and on the ground. And, in the red shirts strewn across the grass having put their bodies on the line to block a cross or shot.
On to Dundee United
We will see what the long-term impact of this game is in due course but it does feel like there was enough in that match to suggest Aberdeen need not be overawed in their forthcoming trip to Hampden. Those who were despearate to see the Aberdeen bubble burst will have to wait a bit longer.
Now the focus turns to Dundee United and Jim Goodwin and a chance to go top of the league once more. We have plently of questions to think about ahead of that one but, those can wait a few days.
For now we stay humble and get back to work at Cormack Park.
COYR
Thanks James, going to listen to the pod this afternoon, looking forward to hearing your perspective.