Sorrow. Sorrow.
Hibs thoughts.
I’ve been working on this off and on, over the last week. I’m sure attention has now drifted towards Dunfermline. This is a summary of some general tactical thoughts that the Hibs game triggered some writing on (#1 apart), as opposed to a blow-by-blow account of the game in Leith.
The start of a new month brought no change to Aberdeen’s form in another lifeless display at Easter Road. Here are some thoughts.
Back 6
This was an incredibly dull football match. There were shades of Aberdeen v Hearts with each team given a go to pass the ball around in their half. Hibernian’s shape offered a lot of defensive stability, width, numbers centrally, and pace in behind. It seemed to spook Aberdeen with the Dons wide men pinned back by the wing backs. Three Aberdeen players were engaged marking two of Hibs. So the Out of Possession 4-4-2 became a 6-2-2 at times as the image below shows.
Perhaps the idea was to have Hibs push numbers forward to create an opportunity to spring counterattacks, but with players that deep, this rarely happened. Hibs were happy to play the longer diagonal and adjust to winning or losing possession on the second ball.
“We are an aggressive, high pressing team with an aggressive attack but we don’t show that right now” - Jimmy Thelin Press Conference Feb 6th
I wonder if dropping in Clarkson, a bit deeper going to a 4-5-1 would have allowed the team to apply more pressure to the three centre-backs, and stop passes between the lines.
However, aside from the attack that led to the goal and the subsequent corner that followed, Hibs did not trouble Aberdeen in any meaningful sense in the opening 45 minutes. Maybe for a team looking to try and get some traction, dropping deeper was perhaps a worthwhile endeavor.
Mind you, if the wide players fail to complete their assignments - stop the cross, track the runner then you get the second goal. Also - look how many bodies Hibs have gotten in the box.
Bodies in the Box
“I know what I want to achieve. I want to overload the opposition’s penalty box.” - Jimmy Thelin preseason.
The closest thing we have gotten to an outline of Jimmy’s playing philosophy was the above quote at the start of the season. I pulled this from a Daily Record article entitled ‘Aberdeen getting more Klopp and less Guardiola’. Hmm. I’ll avoid jumping down that particular rabbit hole for now and just focus on the attacking box part.
Early on in Jimmy’s tenure, it seemed like that message had gotten over loud and clear to the players. Here’s a pic from Aberdeen v Motherwell.
And Aberdeen vs. Hearts (October Game).
There’s some context here at least in the Hearts game, the Dons have a man advantage but you still get the idea. We’ve got numbers in the box and players attacking specific spaces. Note Nicky Devlin in both (more on that later).
Now let’s take a look at Saturday’s first half.
The Dons don’t seem to be hitting those same spaces, right on the byline but even when they do, the team is considerably outnumbered inside the box. Those extra men - the full-back, at least one of the midfielders, the opposite-side winger - are not getting into the area. And even when they are, there’s not the same energy to get on the end of something.
Whether this is through instruction or desire or the circumstances of the attack not being right, one of Jimmy’s key strategic aims is not being met. I am concerned that the team is so nervous about committing numbers up the field and then getting caught with a long clearance that they are curbing the attacking instincts.
It was different in the second half but Aberdeen were 2-0 down and had thrown a lot of strikers on. This has become the new pattern of games and subs. Previously this might have happened if the match was in the balance, now it’s just a hopeful roll of the dice when the team is 2-0 down.
The Right: Keskinen, Devlin and Systems
Following on from the above and going back to the first half. It is not uncommon for Aberdeen to have more controlled possession down the left side and attack in an asymmetrical way. This looked like the plan again on Saturday. Okkels seemed to hug the touchline more and work combinations with Jensen. Here’s the Preston loanee’s touch map in the first half.
The left-hand side build-up is quite well represented by this image from Hearts away earlier in the season.
One thing to notice there is the positioning of Morris and Devlin. The balance of the team to offer a switch of play with the opponent concentrating on numbers on the opposite side.
It’s been common to suggest that Thelin is stubborn, that he doesn’t switch from his 4-2-3-1. This is true on paper but Aberdeen have clearly had two different attacking formations this season (the HereWeGo Podcast have discussed this a bit over the last few episodes).
What we saw on the weekend with a ball player on the left wing (McGrath or Okkels) and Keskinen on the right as a high inside forward. Occasionally this will drift into a 2-4-2-2 (with the #7 and #11 high and the #9 and #10 deeper). A mix of trying to spring quick balls in behind from deep following short passes in the defensive third, or combinations on the left side to get someone in behind for a cross.
A simpler 4-3-3 style shape with two wide men (Duk and Morris usually), and a centre-forward who stays high. The goal is to get the wide men in 1v1 situations and then have them drive to the by-line.
It was more of #1 on Saturday in the first half as has been the case in most games bar Elgin away. We saw some potential of this with Keskinen getting in behind against Hearts when making darting runs in behind but (I’d need to run the numbers) it seems less successful than #2 in terms of chance creation and actual goals being scored.
On Saturday the Finn looked to have no clear idea what he was meant to be doing. He won only 3 out of 11 duels vs. Hibs. As you’ll note from the images above, he rarely attacked the box when the ball was in the wide area, nor was he a consistent switch option with Devlin. Here’s his touch map from the first half.
Keskinen is only 21, he’s played a lot of football over the last 12 months and he’s in a new league. But he is also one of the club’s most expensive ever signings and possibly, the most expensive player in the league outside of the Glasgow two (haven’t checked). I think we can start to ask if we should be getting more from him. Whether that’s him personally or in how the manager utilizes him.
He’s looked more impressive on the left wing, but then Okkels just arrived on loan for that position, so it wouldn’t seem like that’s where Thelin sees him playing consistently. There are lots of questions on who’s choice of a signing he was but surely Jimmy must have signed off on it. Ambrose as a cheaper punt I might get, Topi at not far off £1M, I can’t buy.
Nicky Devlin
In terms of formations, it seems to me that Devlin has always preferred it when he has a wide touchline hugger beside him whether that be Morris or Keskinen (when he stays wider). Whether it’s because of that or just the team’s circumstances, in general,l he seems less aggressive to go forward than he was at the start of the season.
There were a few times in the first half vs. Hibs where the full-back got the ball but did not drive into the space and look to work an overload with Keskinen.
In the below example Palaversa has possession and a simple forward pass is on to Devlin. Keskinen is offside but can work himself into a position to receive a ball to feet or even an overlap.
Keskinen makes the run but Devlin slows down. Boyle is closing down the space.
Devlin opts for a safer pass to Palaversa. Hibs are now back in their defensive shape.
In this example. Devlin receives with a good amount of space to drive into.. Keskinen again is narrow but there is space in behind.
But again, Devlin slows the play down a little and then opts to try and play the ball in behind for Jensen (not a terrible idea). The cross/pass is cut out.
Last one, Devlin in space. Keskinen is wider and you would think there might be a chance to play a through pass or play to feet and support via overlap/underlap/dropping off.
Keskinen doesn’t make the move to spring in behind. Devlin slows down and ends up turning back.
I hope you get the idea. It’s worth keeping an eye on that relationship (or lack-of). They did combine towards the end of the first half but Keskinen was pushed off the ball by Iredale.
Post-Transfer Window Thoughts
In my opinion, the squad is stronger than the start of the window but given the number of players brought in and the positions that were not addressed (e.g. central midfield), I’m not convinced the team will be significantly better.
I sincerely hope these are famous last words but I have my doubts Oday Dabbagh will solve all the goalscoring problems and Mats Knoester will fix the defence. This is based purely on the 11th-hour nature of their arrivals and unspectacular Wikipedia pages. Maybe the recent doom and gloom is clouding my judgement.
Okkels looks a nice footballer and aside from the second goal, I didn’t think he had a bad game vs. Hibs. It’s four games now and not a ton to get super excited by however I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. I just wouldn’t be writing that cheque to Preston yet.
Jensen looks decent but where do we play him? He seemed more comfortable on the right and with MacKenize back, the team seemed to have more balance. And finally, Tobers seems a decent investment but it’s 8 goals conceded in 3 games with him at the heart of the defence. So for all his nice passing and good recoveries, we still need him to organize a backline that’s leaking goals.
What they all seem to have in common is more comfort on the ball. And certainly, in terms of the centre-backs I think this means we’re doubling down on the current possession-based approach, maybe at the expense of aerial prowess. I hope this works.
Dunfermline
Getting through is the priority. Doing so in a manner that restores some confidence ahead of the trip to Dens would be great. I find it hard to see if there will be too many changes, perhaps Gueye dropping deeper but then who goes up front? Morris in for Keskinen, Jensen to the right, and Devlin gets a rest?
Just win, please.
COYR