Match Preview: Hearts (H)
Jambos come to Town
The Dons look forward to their seventh league game of the season this Sunday as they attempt to extend their winning run to a lucky 13 games.
Standing in their way are familiar foes Heart of Midlothian. Basing this match on recent form, Hearts failure to win at Pittodrie since 2016 (3 wins in their last 20), and their midweek trip to Baku, this should be a comfortable 3pts for the men in Red.
But (there’s always a but), Aberdeen supporters are well aware of the transformation in a team’s fortunes that can occur when an underperforming manager is removed from a squad capable of better things. Hearts interim gaffer Liam Fox who was on Barry Robson’s coaching staff in the spring of 2023, can well attest to that too.
They got their first win on Thursday night in Azerbaijan with a late winner and rescued a point against Ross County on Saturday, also in the dying embers. Lawrence Shankland is off the mark and new signing Yan Dhanda got a confidence boost with winner against Minsk. These little moments could well be turning points to get Hearts season moving and the mood is slightly different from a week or two ago.
How are Hearts Doing?
The Jam Tarts sit rock bottom of the SPFL with two points from their opening seven games (as a reminder Hearts have played an extra game). They’ve scored four goals and conceded twelve, the opposite of Aberdeen. Hearts are third in the league for average possession (55.9%) and sit third (Aberdeen are 5th) in passes per defensive action (PPDA) and high recoveries (Aberdeen are 7th). These two metrics we can use as a rough guide for how high they press
Hearts are struggling to score goals at one end, and keep them out at the other. As the data below shows, the Dons have been ruthless in front of goal, compared to the men in Maroon.
To provide further weight, as noted in the first Dons Data segment, Aberdeen are overperforming on xG and, depending on the model, also doing better than expected on xGa (Expected Goals Against). Hearts are underperforming in front of goal, but the data seems to show that there is no major anomaly with their defensive record. The Jambos have conceded in all of their last 10 matches.
The Gorgie outfit should expect to regress to the mean in front of goal in the coming weeks, especially if Shankland finds himself with better scoring opportunities. They do need to tighten up at the back, however. Fox looks to have gone back to basics in terms of team selection, favoring last season’s squad and avoiding the constant formation and personnel changes Naismith was employing when still in charge.
Team News
Fox’s starting XI against Ross County did not feature a single summer signing. James Penrice was brought in at left back on Thursday and may keep his spot. Youngster Adam Forrester has started both games. The right back is captain of Hearts B, of which Fox is the Head Coach.
We don’t know how much rotation will occur but most likely to drop out from Thursdays team will likely be wingers Barrie McKay and Allan Forrest.
Players to watch
Lawrence Shankland (Centre Forward) Needs no introduction to the Dons support and always enjoys the opportunity to score against the Dons. Possibly a victim of Naismith’s tinkering, Shankland seems to have found his mojo again and will be the biggest threat Rubezic and Molloy have faced thus far.
Frankie Kent (Centre Back) Has been a solid back for Hearts and is the vocal leader at the back. Will look to play out of the back and is a threat on set-pieces.
Yan Dhanda (Centre Midfield) Dhanda had a great season for Ross County last year but has not really been given a run in the Hearts side. If he does start he may play on the left wing, or as a #10 in a 4-2-3-1.
Style of Play
As noted, above Hearts seem to be comfortbale in possession and willing to press high. Liam Fox has only had two games with Hearts so its hard to draw many major conclusions but against Ross County it was a clearer 4-2-3-1 but versus Minsk it was a flatter midfield three.
One noticeable feature has been the inverted full-backs in the build-up, particularly at right back with Forrester. See the picture below from the game against Minsk.
Forrester has tucked in to provide an extra midfield passing option, allowing space for the winger to drop into. On the other side it was not quite replicated, with McKay dropping inside more and Penrice been willing to overlap.
Against the ball Hearts pressed quite high in a 4-3-3 shape with Beni Baningime also willing to break from the midfield and squeeze up on the Minsk #6.
Aberdeen Line-Up
Jimmy always seems to throw in the odd surprise, but if I had to predict, I would go for the same line-up as versus Dundee. Keskinen excelled in place of Gueye. The midfield selection headache appeared to be settled last week with Shinnie getting the nod to come back in. The only possible change in that regard, would be Palaversa coming in for Shinnie, Nilsen or even Clarkson (moving the Captain higher).
If things are going well, we may get a Duk sighting. As seems to be Thelin’s way, this may well be a five minutes at the end, to reintroduce himself to the fans.
Tactical Battle
I have promised not to use ‘interesting matchup’ every week but it’s hard to avoid with this current Aberdeen side. When you have a coaching team that prepare well, that add in little elements from week to week both as part of a longer-term plan and in response to the opposition, you can’t help but be intrigued to see what unfolds.
The easy option for Hearts would be to come to Pittodrie, sit back in a 4-5-1, frustrate the big home crowd and look to nick something via a set-piece. After their exertions on Thursday both on and off the field, I don’t think anyone would blame them. They did this fairly well at Celtic Park recently. However, Fox seems to have some clear ideas on how he wants to play, is unlikely to be in charge of Hearts beyond this weekend and I just get the feeling they will come out and try and play.
At the very least we will be presented with the following in opposition:
Team that is happy and capable to keep the ball
A team that is willing to press higher up the field
A back four
A high level striker and goalkeeper
Players that can come off the bench and make an impact
The Dons seem to have struggled to get their full-backs involved in the attacking sense up against teams that play three at the back so I think this helps in that regard.
Additionally, against one striker, Aberdeen have been able to build up fairly easily, largely by virtue of Nilsen’s ability to find space. I will be keen to see how Hearts deal with that issue. As noted before Baningime pushed high on the #6 of Minsk and were he to do the same on Sunday, I could see Aberdeen using this to their advantage, by accessing the space he vacates.
I think the inverted full-backs in the build-up could be something the Reds target. There is a lot of potential space to be attacked and if the right pressing trap is set, we could see some quick breaks into those areas. That would involve Aberdeen leaving the right winger in space so that he becomes a very simple passing choice and then squeezing very hard when the pass is played to him.
How does Thelin approach it? Does he suck Hearts in and implement the fabled Elfsborg counter-attacking style, elements of which we saw against Dundee. Or will he look to play through any press like we saw against Kilmarnock and Motherwell. Most likely it will be a mix of both, like in the Dundee game, different phases and approaches within the game. Different ideas when with the ball versus without. We should expect a good amount of transitions here.
Summary
Hearts falling apart is certainly a comedy that is only enjoyed more and more with repeated viewing. If you weren’t emotionally involved, looking at all the factors: their league position, poor record at Pittodrie and coming back from an away trip in Europe, this would seem like a foregone conclusion.
However, there have been some stirrings in the last week, and Hearts can’t surely continue with their relegation form (though they do have previous).They have one of the stronger squads in the league and would love nothing better to rain on Aberdeen’s parade. The longer the game goes on, the more chance they will have to do so.
With a capacity crowd inside Pittodrie, patience may well need to be the name of the game. We know Jimmy will have a plan to get us another win of substance and hopefully come the final whistle, the sound of Joy Division will reverberate around the old lady.
Enjoy the game, wish I was there. Thanks to all the new subscribers in the last few weeks and thanks again to the team at Here We Go! for having me on the podcast.
COYR