Matchday 33: The Rangers (H)
Game preview and some other stuff
Aberdeen will conclude their pre-split fixtures on Sunday afternoon with the visit of Barry Ferguson’s outfit. After consecutive victories following the International break, there’s a good feeling starting to develop around the side again. This is a big game.
This week’s P&J article looked at how the Dons adapted to County’s high press and established control during the first half.
The Opposition
Thursday’s 0-0 draw against Athletic Bilbao was probably the best result Aberdeen could have hoped for. The Rangers had an exerting fixture but remain in the tie. Thursday’s trip to the Basque Country will surely take precedence.
Ergo it’s difficult to predict what kind of team Rangers will play that’s one for the guys at trfc2012.com but they’ll certainly have to make changes. Bazza has switched his formation about numerous times, obviously because he’s a tactical genius and not that he’s throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. They lost to Hibs playing a back four. They seem more settled with a back three and playing on the counter.
I looked with anticipation at their record post-Thursday night matches for some additional confidence but actually, their results are superb. The only match they haven’t won was against Celtic (3-3) in the League Cup Final (please correct me if I’m wrong). Suffice to say, as much as we have enjoyed some of their results this season, they remain in the last eight of the of the Europa League, have recently won at Parkhead, and since that heady night in October, they have picked up 46 points to our 21. A victory would be a superb result.
Selection Questions
Does Morris Start?
Jimmy threw a curveball last week with the inclusion of Shady Mo from the start and it certainly worked out great. As much as I have supported Morris starting, I do wonder if this might be a game for him to attack tired legs off the bench. This is tied to the fact I think Okkels is improving and Keskinen seems untouchable (topic for another day). It’s too late probably to justify the rumoured seven figures on making the Okkels loan deal permanent but I think he can contribute in the run-in.
Leaving Morris out would be a gamble too, especially given how the Rangers seem to start games. He’s earned the start if you ask me.
What about Pape Gueye?
Last Saturday was not one of his finest outings but he still contributed as an aerial outlet for the team. We saw on Saturday how important that can be for the team to beat a higher press. The issue is that he seems to lose possession more often than not even when he does get the ball down.
He did create a great chance for Nisbet with a flick-on after the Morris goal. I also thought he had a good game against Motherwell, helping to provide passing options in the inside left channel. Long-term I’d be surprised if he’s the answer but I think he has a role to play here too.
The only alternatives I see involve moving Nisbet into the deeper role or taking Clarkson out of central midfield and I wouldn’t support either of those.
Midfield Duo
It’s been two fun weeks for Palaversa and Clarkson. Assuming Jimmy sticks with them, this is an acid test for how we will approach the rest of the season and particularly the cup semi-final. There remains a concern that Leighton could get bullied in there and in these tight matches, the bite of Shinnie or Nilsen may be more beneficial, particularly if Aberdeen have less of the ball. The theory will be put to the test on Sunday. I expect our Liverpool lad will be targeted.
In possession, the way things have been working out there are three main methods for Aberdeen’s build up:
Clarkson/Palaversa drop in and dictate play - think Motherwell
Clarkson/Palaversa get marked tightly, centre backs go longer into forwards - think County at times
Clarkson/Palaversa plus Knoester/Dorrington circulate to create an opening for the defenders to carry the ball forward
I think #3 might be most interesting and we saw signs of this with Tobers at Ibrox (another shameless plug below.) On that day however, a lot of the space was provided by Clarkson as #10 drifting to the left wing. Not sure that will happen with another player e.g. Gueye in there.
I’m also mentioning this as we’ve seen a few good runs forward with the ball from Knoester but particularly Dorrington - who seems more comfortable and confident with every week. Centre-backs who can bring the ball up like that generally cause chaos if they get it right.
There’s usually a tweak or two to the line-up, so we’ll just wait and see but Jimmy seems to know what he’s doing so we’ll trust his decision.
The Ghosts of xG Past
I thought it would be worth checking in on the xG of the last few games, given form has turned around. Reading too much into individual games is dangerous. Still, if we remember the suggestion that Aberdeen were overperforming at the start of the season, and how it did appear to have some merit with our drop-in form in the long run, it’s helpful to keep an eye out. Here’s how FotMob (whose data comes via Opta I believe), have scored our last four league games:
The two matches that stand out are the United and Motherwell games in which the scores were flipped but you can maybe account for that.
The Motherwell performance was excellent, but we did score twice from outside the box, which are generally lower percentage opportunities. This is probably a topic in itself and I do wonder if maybe the models are overestimating the quality of SPFL keepers.
The conclusion, I would say is that with six league matches and at least one Scottish Cup match, against the best teams in the league, margins are likely to be thin, which has been the case all season. This brings me neatly to the last linked post of this week which was written following the Killie win.
At that point, the Dons were on 41 points. I ventured 16pts might be enough (57 total) for 3rd. That’s still in range, we’ve got eight thus far. The main issue is Hibs keep winning and Dundee Utd won’t go away.
The conclusion on the remainder of the season was this (yes not exactly groundbreaking - you need your attackers to score)
(T)he success of our season I believe will rely on the contributions of the following six attacking players: Kevin Nisbet, Oday Dabbagh, Pape Gueye, Topi Keskinen, Jeppe Okkels and Shayden Morris.
We’re going to need around 15 goals. Let’s say the midfield pop up with the odd one and we grab a couple from set-pieces, one or two of those lads is going to have to find the back of the net on a consistent basis.
We've got seven goals so far and Nisbet and Morris are starting to fulfill their end of the bargain. I’m now casting my eye to the Nordic countries. We’ve had some big moments from Keskinen this season but not really in the big games. At some point he has to score from one of these inside forward runs.
As for Okkels, well, unlikely heroes sometimes appear at crucial moments in the club’s history. Just cast your mind back 55 years.
Enjoy the match.
COYR