Match Preview: St Johnstone (H)

Simo’s slick Saints arrive at Pittodrie

I didn’t have time to do a full debrief on Wednesday’s game but there was a couple of notes I made about the pressing structure. You can read here.

After the tension of Wednesday night, the culmination of a testing 4-game run, Aberdeen have a more straightforward task on Saturday at least on paper. Delve a little deeper, add in a dash of paranoia and the game looks a bit harder.

When we were sold Thelin’s low possession counter-attacking football, St Johnstone at home was an example that came to mind as to whether this would really be viable. How would the Pittodrie crowd handle ceding possession, dropping deep and playing on the break against…St. Johnstone.

That hasn’t come to pass for the most part. Aberdeen are multidimensional and can mix up their playing style depending on the circumstances.

However, the Dons are not the only ones undertaking a Nordic revolution and new boss Simo Valakari has instilled a pretty clear passing identity to the Saints in a short space of time. We may well get what we were promised after all…

How have Saints done since the last match?

Back in August, the two sides kicked off their season in Perth. Bojan Miovski was still in an Aberdeen shirt and Craig Levein in the dugout for the home side. That night the Dons were very impressive in the first-half before enduring a nervous finish.

Levein was removed after five games, and replaced with former Motherwell man Valakari. Simo was eventually able to take his spot in the dugout for the home win against Dundee on October 26th, although he was working with the team prior to this. The Finn’s record is currently two wins and four losses.

St. Johnstone sit ninth in the table with 13pts.

Stats Corner (data via FotMob)

The most surprising metric related to Saints as alluded to earlier, is their average possession. Prior to last week’s fixture against the Rangers, they stood third in the league, but have now dropped to 4th with a total of 52.9% . For reference last season they were 12th, with an average of 43.4%. Their average under Valakari is 58%.

So obviously, as mentioned above (and below) a major change in regards to willingness and ability to retain the ball.

Their xG is second lowest in the league at 15.9 (actual 17) however perhaps more concerning, or perhaps encouraging for the future if things level out, is their xGa. Saints have conceded 28 goals from an expected allowance of 21.

Generally, the Perth side are sitting in or around the bottom of most other attacking metrics e.g. touches in opposition box (11th), shots on target (9th), Big chances created (11th) and corners (10th). All of which suggests they are struggling to turn their possession into goalscoring opportunities.

St. Johnstone Tactics

Valakari has opted for a 4-3-1-2 shape in all his games thus far and this will present a new tactical challenge for the Dons.

Austrian Sven Sprangler has been playing as the #6 at the base of the midfield and seems to be doing a good job on both sides of the ball. It’s an experienced midfield with Jason Holt and Graham Carey slotting in beside Sprangler and Nicky Clark playing in the #10.

Up front Saints have a lot of pace with Benjamin Kimpioka, MacKenzie Kirk and Adama Sidibeh. It was the latter two who started last week with Sidibeh coming off the bench.

Left back Andre Raymond has had a strong season but he is injured as is backup Barry Douglas so Saints will be a bit weaker both attacking and defensively on the left side.

The image below shows how the two teams may match-up when Saints have the ball. This assumes Aberdeen revert to type and a 4-4-2 out of possession shape. Immediate concern is Saints having a 4v2 centrally in a classic diamond shape that offers width and depth.

You can see elements in the below clip from last week of the options they have in possession. Wide to full-backs, forward to one of the two forwards, and smaller interchanges within the midfield four.

Perhaps we’ll see Aberdeen employ some of the same tactics as we saw on Wednesday night and it will be interesting to see how high Thelin looks to press.

Dealing with twin strikers will also pose a challenge for the central-defensive partnership and being on top of balls in behind will be very important.

From an attacking perspective the obvious advantage space for Aberdeen is in the full-back area so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Devlin and McGarry have major roles to play. Quick switches of play may also be an avenue to explore as the Saint’s midfield shuffle over to the ball-side to defend.

Aberdeen Selection

Quite confident that any lineup predicted will be off on this one. You’d think Palaversa may be in line for the start but we’ve said that before. Given Saint’s issues at left-back, I’d be advocating for a start for Morris but would not be averse to Duk continuing on the right. We’ll just wait and see what Thelin decides.

This game does seem ripe for a high-press and an opportunity to disrupt Saints build-up so it’ll be really intriguing to see how Aberdeen fare in this regard.

Summary

With all due respect to the Saints, this certainly would have been the type of game you would have picked to get the team back on saddle after a tough couple of weeks.

Though Valakari has made some impressive changes in his short time at McDiarmid Park, they are still a work in progress. Being frank, Aberdeen have better players and should be expected to pick up the three points but I think St. Johnstone will surprise a few onlookers at Pittodrie and may well cause some unrest in the crowd.

At the very least, as long as the weather does not intervene, we should see two teams try to play football.

Enjoy the game.

COYR.