Match Preview: Hibs (H)
Home for Christmas
The mini-break is over, all has been forgiven and the Dons are home for Christmas.
Letters to Santa sent in early November may well requested Hibs at home as the perfect gift to open under the tree but things have changed over the past few weeks. Your drunken uncle is making his way up the East Coast, an unwelcome festive guest who threatens to ruin the big day by stealing your booze, your best Quality Street and your three points.
How have Hibs done since the last match?
Since that crazy game last month, Hibs have picked up six points out of nine and moved up to ninth in the table. Their one loss was a credible performance at Parkhead. Despite the 3-0 scoreline, Hibs created five big chances and had nine shots on target.
Thought it’s not exactly title-winning form and Saturday’s win over Ross County did include, by all accounts, a pretty abject first-half, there’s enough to suggest they’ve turned a corner. Let’s remember Aberdeen just drew 1-1 with St. Johnstone and the Hibees have a considerably more potent attack.
Stats Corner
Last week I touched on expected points. Flaws acknowledged, here’s FotMob’s xG table:
There is no data metric that calculates the ‘Hibsing it’ factor inherit in the Leith club’s DNA but there’s no doubt this season has seen the Cabbage throw away a number of points in comedy fashion. As we’ve over-performed, they have under-performed.
The Transfermarkt website has Hibs squad value as 5th in the league at €14.55m with the Dons in 4th at €18.05m. On paper and at least according to some data this should be a matchup between two evenly matched teams.
Other stats of note (via FotMob):
Average Possession: 47.1% (7th)
Big Chances Missed: 26 (3rd)
Accurate Long Balls: 25.6 per game (4th)
Possession won final 3rd per match: 2.6 (8th)
xG conceded: 26.6 (3rd)
Hibs Tactics
The previous match saw Hibs switch to a 3-4-1-2 and they’ve retained that shape since. Adding an extra central defender has shored them up at the back and perhaps relieved some of the defensive burden on their attacking players. Dwight Gayle has come into the side and added some nous in the penalty area.
In Possession
Elie Youan blows a bit hot and cold and has only one goal and one assist so far this season. However, he is a strong runner with the ball and caused Aberdeen problems at Easter Road. We saw him in that game drop into pockets on the left hand side and look to run at the Aberdeen defence or combine with his teammates.
Nicky Cadden and Junior Hoillet provide technical quality alongside him and those three have the potential to create issues for Aberdeen via overloads and combinations, or via a counter attack that exploits space Devlin may have vacated and then pull Rubezic out of his comfort zone.
In the last game, the Dons pressed fairly high at Easter Road forcing Hibs to go long. I haven’t seen much of them since so it’s possible they are now implementing some more passing patterns but their current plight, high winds and tendencies this far suggest they will not be afraid to go long.
Out of Possession
Sivert Nilsen really struggled to get on the ball in the last outing with Hoillet providing good cover on the Norwegian. Nilsen is eligible for tomorrow’s match but regardless, whoever plays in central midfield, will need to be able to get on the ball. Hibs seemed to execute a decent enough plan to stop the Dons so we can expect similar.
Their biggest weakness is their inability to defend. Goalkeeper Jordan Smith showed some of his flaws in the 3-3 and the Dons should be looking to apply as much pressure as possible on him.
What might happen?
I’ve given up predicting Thelin lineups but there will be a surprise no doubt. It is a hectic few weeks so there will definitely be rotation. Whether it’s tomorrow or Thursday, we’ll have to wait and see.
I think we can expect some elements of the last few games as I think Hibs might be happy enough to cede the onus of being the primary aggressor but I reckon it will be a 55-45 possession style split.
What will be interesting to see is how Aberdeen fare in their build-up play. New Head of Recruitment Nuno de Almeida gave an insightful interview to RedTV and one of the things he discussed was Aberdeen being ‘dominant with the ball’ and building the play up. These are things we’ve seen but never heard from Jimmy.
The Dons have now had two weeks on the training field. In his press conference Jimmy stated most of the work in practice was directed towards being more aggressive in attack. How that manifests itself on the field we will have to see. Getting the ball forward quicker? A more intense press? Faster passing through the lines?
Summary
There’s a sneaky tricky run that’s appeared on the horizon with three tough away trips in the next four games to follow.
This feels like a big game. A win moves the team to 37pts and then hitting 40 before the end of the year is very much in play. Lose, or even draw this one and the Rangers should slide into second with the gap starting to close to the chasing pack.
This little break has reminded me more than anything that we’re just at the beginning of hopefully an exciting few years. I don’t think the game will be perfect. I expect Hibs will score. I expect Aberdeen will play some aimless long balls and there may well be some crowd unrest. But I’ve a feeling that the rest from match action will have re-energised the team and hopefully Saturday night (inserts obligatory David Gray pun) will see the lights turning from Green to Red.
COYR