Match Preview: Hearts (A)
Doon at the bottom they bide
Aberdeen return to the capital to face bottom side Heart of Midlothain at Tynecastle this afternoon. After the drama of Tuesday night the Dons will be looking to return to winning ways against the Jambos.
If looking purely at league placement, then this should be a game in which Aberdeen enter as favourites, but of course, and as funny as Hearts plight is, we only have to look at their trip to Pittodrie in October to recognise they are underperforming with the squad available.
As has been well noted, Aberdeen’s record at Tynecastle is pretty brutal. You can pick your stat of choice: Winless in the last 11 visits in the league (May 2017 is the last win). Five straight defeats with only one goal scored. Six wins this century. Jimmy Thelin will be attempting to become the first Aberdeen boss not named Derek McInnes to win in Gorgie since Mark McGhee triumphed 3-0 in January 2010.
How have Hearts done since the last match?
October’s 3-2 win for the Dons was interim manager, and now first-team coach Liam Fox’s last match in charge before the hiring of Neil Critchley. After a promising start in which he won three out of his first five games, Hearts have now suffered four successive losses, with one win in their last seven.
There are caveats. Those four matches have come against Heidenheim, away to Rangers, home to Celtic and then on Thursday, in Belgium against Cercle Brugge. In all four, they have received plaudits for positive performances (maybe not second half v Celtic) and generally considered to have been unlucky to lose all four.
Stats Corner
Stats wise they’re slightly overperforming xG (15 goals to an xG of 16.5) and underperforming on xGA (24 goals conceded to an xGA of 22.5) and their xGA is the worst in the league.
Additional data points which stand out are:
Average Possession: 53.7% (4th)
Big Chances Created: 26 (5th)
Accurate Long Balls: 23.4 per game (11th)
Possession won final 3rd per match: 2.1 (10th)
Touches in opposition box: 360 (2nd)
Successful tackles per match: 12.4 (1st)
Corners: 87 (2nd)
Hearts Tactics
New boss Critchley began his tenure with a 4-4-2 and after a win in his second match over Omonia Nicosia stated: “we're at home, this is our pitch, this is our rules, you play our game and we're coming after you”. In recent weeks, most likely based on the level of opposition, the bluster has diminished a little and Hearts have opted for a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
So it’s not clear how Hearts will setup at least on paper on Sunday, but I don’t think there’s any doubt that their intention will be in keeping with Critchley’s mantra to come after Aberdeen. They had success with both a high press and balls into the box at Pittodrie and if they’ve watched Aberdeen in the last two games, we can only expect them to double down on this strategy.
The prevailing theme from the Hearts side is their inability to finish opportunities. Lawrence Shankland has only found the net once in the SPFL Premiership this season and missed a penalty on Thursday in Brugges, whereby he was serenaded by Hearts fans with a chorus of ‘Shankland, Shankland, Get to…” You can guess the rest. Kenneth Vargas is not much more popular following his recent comments on International duty suggesting he may move in January as he’s always looking for ‘better options”.
Alternative options at striker are youngster James Wilson who has scored double the amount of Shankland this season (2 goals) and Spanish forward Musa Drammeh, who joined this summer from Seville’s B team and scored against Celtic last weekend.
Regardless of the final decision on the team you can expect intensity and physicality in midfield via a combination (or all three) of Malachi Boateng, Cammy Devlin and Beni Baningime. Blair Spittal who played well against the Dons will likely play on the left side and look to come inside. James Penrice, the former Livi left back is suspended, so Hearts will need to restore Stephen Kingsley to the line-up or give forgotten Colombian Andres Salazar a recall to the team.
The Dons Line-Up
There’s a bit of uncertainty here added in to the usual questions. It’s the third game in eight days, with the Champions at home on Wednesday. I would expect it’s possible that one of Shinnie or Nilsen does not start with Palaversa coming in. Personally, I feel the Croat has been decent and shown some real moments of quality but I’m not ready to declare him the messiah just yet. The two old-timers have been pretty impressive this season, but I do think it’s a justifiable concern on whether they can maintain their intensity over repeated 90 minute outings.
Elsewhere, I discussed the back four on the Hibs debrief and I think it’s unlikely Jimmy will make any changes there. Further up field, we’re dealing with the same questions. Four out of Clarkson, Keskinen, Sokler, Nisbet, Morris and Duk.
As this is a bit of fun, I’ll take a guess with the below. The rationale: Sokler is better out of possession than Nisbet. Clarkson to come in and add another footballer in there to provide option to outnumber Hearts midfield two in a box setup, and Morris to test the pace of whoever their left-back is.
My biggest concern is Aberdeen’s ability to play through a press. Against Celtic, Hearts were able to create a few chances from turning the ball over high up the field. The Dons still don’t seem to have perfected this part of the game (this may be some of the ‘identity’ elements Thelin is referrring to) but nor have they nailed down a good plan B.
Whenver the ball goes long, quite often from the right back slot via Devlin being put under pressure by Rubezic, we’ve struggled for a forward to hold the ball up or even flick on. Second balls are there to be won but I think this will benefit Hearts given their midfield personell.
Here’s an example from the Hibs game, where the Dons were able to negotiate a high press, find a free man and get themselves into a promising attacking position.
A Game of Two Halves
As was noted in the Hibs review, the Dons have now scored only one of their last 15 goals in the first half. It correlates generally with the feeling that they have become a second-half team. Thelin was asked about this in the Friday press-conference, and intimated his theory was that Aberdeen are able to perform at a greater intensity over the full 90 minutes.
“You can see it in different ways, sometimes the opponents are high and full of energy in the first half and it’s quite an open game. You can also look at it with different eyes that we are really strong over 90 minutes, that we can keep our intensity for a long period. Sometimes the opponents take the fight really hard in the first half, so the game is more blocked and maybe looks slower but sometimes it looks much sharper for us in the second half because we are a strong team and we don’t drop our levels so much.”
Jimmy Thelin via club website
So we know the team is not scoring but is this being translated into chances created? We measure this via expected goals (xG). Not perfect by any means but it least it gives us some perspective. The numbers bear out that the team is more effective in the second period, but not by a huge margin - 0.66xG in the first half, 0.84xG in the second half.
The direction is trending more towards the second half, in keeping with what we’re seeing, so there’s an element of ‘so what, stupid?’ here but it’s fair to say that chances that are being missed in the first half, are being converted in the second. For example, Sokler had a great opportunity vs. St. Mirren early on and McGrath wasn’t far away with a couple of cutbacks against Hibs.
Summary
The differing fortunes of two teams with similar levels of talent and budget is quite remarkable. It’s a familiar feeling for us all if we cast our minds back twelve months. In fact, it’s worth doing so, just to put the last week in perspective. Were the performances and results against St. Mirren and Hibs where Aberdeen want to be? No. Would we have expected challenges on the road in Thelin’s debut season? Yes.
It’s hard to be optimistic for this one given the poor record. However, Hearts are bottom. They’re coming off of the back of a European trip. Their most important player and captain is getting abuse from the stands. If we are going to end this hoodoo, this would seem like an opportune moment to do so.
I think we would all sleep better at night if we got a good first half and less panic in the defence. It will take a big performance but the momentum dial would turn right back to positive if we can pick up the three points and gain the opportunity to return to the top of the league again on Wednesday.
Sorry Jimmy. One game at a time.
COYR