Match Preview: Dundee (H)
Back at it
The Dons return to Pittodrie, the SPFL, and unbeaten runs on Saturday evening. The familiarity does not stop there. It was a little over a month ago that the two sides met for the first time this season, and Tony Docherty is obviously a weel-kent face at AB24.
The trip to Dens in late-September was seen as a barometer for the men in Red and the 2-1 win was hard-fought and well-earned. It was also the game that spawned a number of articles on Thelin’s transitional style as we saw two deadly counter-attacking goals from Nisbet and Keskinen.
In their last ten visits up the A90, Dundee have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7. In Docherty’s tenure beginning in summer 2023, they have won five away games in total: Livingston (twice), Ross County, St. Johnstone and this season Motherwell. The expectation regardless of how well Aberdeen are doing would be to get 3pts in this game, and in this season of all seasons, there’s no reason things should be any different.
How have Dundee done since the last match?
The Dee have played five times since the 2-1 defeat to Aberdeen, winning two games (Motherwell and Kilmarnock) and losing three (Kilmarnock, St. Johnstone and Celtic). Last week they overturned a 2-0 deficit against Derek McInnes with a 94th minute winner from Ziyad Larkeche, only four weeks after Killie had done the same to them.
Such is the nature of the league, Dundee would have been sitting bottom at some point on Saturday, given results elsewhere, but with the comeback they now sit in 6th on 12 points.
From a data perspective, the most notable stat for Dundee is that they are 12th in Expected Goals Against. Keeper John McCracken has had a few fumbles and they overperformed against Celtic, only losing 2-0 when the data said it should have been a lot more, so perhaps there is some context to be applied here.
Team news wise, back-up Goalkeeper Trevor Carson, and midfielder Scott Fraser are both out and loanee Julien Vetro fainted prior to the Killie match so his availability is questionable.
Dundee In Possession
As mentioned earlier the first meeting (feel free to refresh your memory with link above) saw the Dons score a couple early, concede a silly penalty and then defend a lot of crosses in the second half. Despite Docherty’s post-match opinion that the better team lost, Dundee created very little but they did certainly shade the territorial element of the game in the latter 45 minutes.
On that day, Dundee went with a 3-5-2, and did so in the three following matches, but at Celtic Park it was a 5-4-1 and last week v Killie a 3-4-2-1/3-4-3 similar to how Dundee Utd setup.
In the week Docherty praised loanee Oluwaseun Adewumi who played as one of the two in behind Simon Murray and the former Dons assistant said the following in his press conference:
"But their unbeaten run in the cup is now finished, it is my job as Dundee manager to sow those seeds of doubt and try and make sure my team go up there and put in a level of performance that gives us every opportunity to win.”
So my thought is that Dundee may well go with the 3-4-3 line-up and look to try and attack the wide areas, just like they did in the game at Dens. They are quite fluid and interchange positions with one-two’s when they get the ball high up the field in wide areas, with the aim to set-up a crossing option.
Most of their goals in recent weeks have come from crosses, or long punts (just like the goal v Aberdeen). Larkeche is a real danger down the left. He is excellent at making runs from deep, good in 1v1 defensive and attacking duels and now has three league goals to his name.
Adewumi’s influence is growing and he started for the first time last week and grabbed an assist following a goal against Killie in their first meeting and familiar names Lyle Cameron and Simon Murray will also pose a threat.
Make no mistake, Dundee are not a bad football team and are certainly, in my opinion one of the more interesting teams tactically in the SPFL. They are willing to get the ball down, look to play forward quickly, maintain a lot of width and get balls into the box, but they can revert to standard SPFL-bottom-six-ball if required. Clark Robertson has an excellent range of passing from the back and is one of the most accurate long ball passers in the league with a 54.3% success rate.
Exploiting an Aberdeen Weakness
It’s worth noting that though we’ve discussed starting shapes, the positions taken up by players whether a team is attacking or defending are often very different to what we see at the start of the game. Given the slow nature of a lot of build-up, teams are able to organise themselves into different structures whilst the ball is in the first third of the pitch, both from an attacking and defensive point of view. The immediate and obvious one is that Aberdeen start in a 4-2-3-1 but always defend as a 4-4-2 (out of possession structure).
On the opposite side of the ball, I noted against Dundee Utd how Thelin had them in a 2-4-2-2 at times, and then a 2-4-1-3. I’m going to try and do some more study on this over the coming weeks and try and identify some clearer patterns, with the caveat that these are quite often very fluid situations.
In the short-term however, Dundee’s attacking structure is fairly similar from week to week and mirrors the popular 3-2-5 shape that is becoming more prevalent at the highest level. Dundee’s wing backs might not be quite as high as some teams but the same principles still apply whether it’s 3-4-3 or 3-2-5. Here’s how this might look on the field.
In the last match, Dundee made a lot of runs in behind the Aberdeen full-backs. I was critical of Aberdeen’s pressing in allowing these passes in behind and not being tight enough with their pressure but it’s not easy to defend this in Aberdeen’s 4-4-2 shape. The video provides a pretty simple and short overview of how the 3-2-5 can take on the 4-4-2.
Dundee Out of Possession
From what I’ve seen against teams that look to build up - Celtic and Simo’s St. Johnstone (yes you read that right - that’s going to be a fun team to analyse) Dundee dropped deep and into a 5-3-1-1, so this might take some organisation/communication to evolve from a 3-4-3.
See pics below.
Unfortunately there’s no real images I could get of the 3-4-3 against Killie’s build-up as Killie did not really look to build-up.
So despite Docherty’s comments and however they may line-up attacking wise, if they’re defending deep against St. Johnstone at home, my hunch is they will drop deep into a shape similar to the above and force Aberdeen to try and break them down. They looked to funnel the ball wide and the wing backs are very aggressive to jump on the pass, and with coverage in behind, this potential liability can be hard to exploit.
The Dons
I’m not sure how Jimmy plays this one line-up wise. I don’t know, despite the 6-0 defeat, if wholesale changes will be implemented, or even if they are required. There are a lot of questions that will only be answered on Saturday around 4.30pm. The biggest question mark may relate to Duk who may drop out after his performance at Hampden.
Perhaps Clarkson returns to the team with McGrath moving back to the left, or maybe it’s the time to give Shayden Morris a start, especially if we expect Dundee to sit deep. We shall see, I really don’t know.
In terms of the approach, I think this will be more possession based, with fewer long-balls. Both teams will be confident they can have success with transitions. Aberdeen conceded twice on counter-attacks to Celtic and once against Rangers. I’m not sure Dundee have the quality of either but they do have pace in their front line and some good passers. And for Aberdeen, Dundee should be willing to get forward enough to open up space in behind and create numbers up situations.
Summary
This game concludes the third little segment of the season interspersed with International breaks. Following this it’s all systems go immediately with four matches in ten days (three away plus Celtic at home) although the Dons will get a two-week break in early December due to the rearranging of the Rangers match based on their participation in the League Cup final.
Anyway, what am I doing getting ahead of myself? Jimmy would not approve. The narrative all week has been on whether Aberdeen can bounce back from the defeat on Saturday, and I suppose we’re all asking the same questions too. There has yet to be a convincing league victory, by a few goals this season and I don’t expect tonight will give us one.
In what may seem a fit of pure laziness, I’ve just decided to cut and paste the closing statement from the last Saturday evening fixture against Dundee’s city rivals. It felt right at the time and was a rare case of a prediction coming true, so let’s hope lightning strikes twice.
The sell-out crowd may need to be patient and trust in the process as I’m sure Dundee United will have entertainment as the least of their concerns. Thelin has shown a willingness to change the flow of the game with his substitutions and the Dons have a strong bench in which to impact the match. It’s a 90-minute game and they may need all of it, but hopefully, we can wake up the following morning with Aberdeen back at their rightful place, 3pts clear at the top of the Scottish Premiership.
Enjoy the game. COYR.
P.S. Some recommendations for additional reading on last week’s match if you can bear it.
Andrew Budge wrote this really nice thread on Twitter. I would defintely recommend checking it out and giving him a follow or subscribing to his Substack.
James Dailey of the Celtic blog the Huddle Breakdown got deep into the data of the two games and gave his take on what Jimmy may have gotten right and wrong.