In the Balance
Business End
After a busy few days for the Dons, attention turns to Sunday’s clash against Dundee United.
There are now 10 games left of this topsy-turvy season. Aberdeen remain in a strong position to reach the Scottish Cup semi-finals and finish in the top three. Beating Queen’s Park at home, Celtic (at Hampden) and one other would ensure the team: a) wins a trophy (the point of this whole thing) and b) gets the coveted Europa League Playoff spot which guarantees group stage football.
For now though we’ll focus on the SPFL Premiership in the #battlefor3rd.
Points Totals
It felt like a pivotal midweek round of matches. It’s going to be an even more important Sunday with 3rd vs. 5th and 4th vs 6th. The Dons could end the Sabbath 4pts clear of 4th, or 2pts adrift in 5th.
The Edinburgh derby comes at the perfect time. At least one of Hibs or Hearts (or both) will drop points and have their momentum stalled. Hibs are on an impressive run and their 3-5-2 seems to be providing a perfect balance of defensive solidity and attacking threat.
But if we just concentrate on the Dons for now, what kind of points total are we looking for?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that this year is likely to be one of the lowest 3rd place totals. There is a potential 30pts up for grabs of course but I think 60 would probably be more than enough, likely lower, but let’s use that for now. Accordingly the Dons would need 19 points.
Yeah, don’t think that’s happening. Let’s shoot for 16, and hope Hearts and Hibs cut each other’s throats…
Here’s our Expected points graph from December updated after Tuesday’s match.
Pre-Split Fixtures
It’s an assumption but I think Aberdeen will make the top 6. Accordingly we’re likely looking at Hearts and Rangers away, and Celtic at home. Being a realist, I’m saying 0 pts from those three. Maybe 1. We’re probably pinning our hopes on wins v Hibs at home and United at Tannadice. (I know it doesn’t always work out that cleanly).
Ergo we need 10-12 out of 15 from the following:
Is there enough in the squad to go on a run in what are five winnable games?
Scoring Goals
Richard Gordon and Willie Miller had a wee chuckle on Sportsound the other night noting that Dons were in 3rd on a -8 goal difference. Although it is worth remembering the Dons came 3rd in 2023/24 with a -4 GD, in general, they’ve got a point.
An obvious statement, nothing new but Aberdeen are not scoring enough goals whilst conceding too many. 22% of the team’s goals have come against Dundee - the worst defence in the league and a side staring into the relegation abyss.
I’m not really sure what the above table is really telling us but I enjoyed making it. That 6pt swing to Hibs may be crucial when it’s all said and done. Thank fuck for Dundee.
The Devil’s in the Data
It’s been quite a season to begin blogging on the Dons. Way back in October I checked in on the xG and I convinced myself it was probably nothing to worry about. Then in December, when looking at the expected points models, I was sure the algorithms had it wrong. So at this point I’m going to hold my hands up, wave the white flag, and bow to the nerds. Right now you wouldn’t put your money on the Dons.
Here’s the current ‘expected points’ table from FotMob.
I’ve seen a number of different xG scorelines from the last three games. For Dundee and Killie, some have Aberdeen winning, some have it a draw and some have us losing. In all cases it’s a margin call. Despite the recent wins, there wasn’t enough to suggest that Aberdeen games aren’t a toss up.
For reference the Celtic result was not as bad on paper, which I think correlates to what we all saw. A very interesting game, which I’ll maybe revisit ahead of our next meeting.
Even on the winning run, halcyon days though they were, the team did not always appear to play well in the first half. On quite a few occasions online chatter, in the moment, bemoaned the quality and the performance at half-time, before the narrative shifted based on the final result. There was a growing momentum that Jimmy’s changes changed the game.
It was a similar case on Saturday against Killie. A poor first half, but not going behind, followed by some changes and a major momentum shift. And when we say changes, just like before, we really mean Shayden Morris.
The challenge for Jimmy Thelin and his team over the next few weeks is to try and avoid the coin-toss scenario. To be solid enough at the back to avoid giving away soft goals. To create enough chances that gets pretty close to removing all element of doubt.
Taking Shots, Scoring Goals
One of my go-to topics this year has been shots taken, shots on target and shot conversions. It’s a simpler metric and of course lacks the nuance of xG and its associated mates but it can still offer insight.
Hibs have a slighty higher total conversion rate at 12% with the other three on 11% (falling in line with historical SPFL averages). It’s a fairly clear relationship between taking shots, getting them on target and scoring goals. Aberdeen appeared to buck the system earlier in the season, but things have evened out.
If we want to win five out of the next five, we’ll probably need around two goals a game, which at an 11% conversion is around 18 shots (I’m ignoring the topic of shot quality for now but I’ve written a lot on this previously).
The Dons have only managed this in three SPFL games this season (St. Johnstone (A), Rangers (H) Ross County (H)), so it might be a bit of an ask but if we can get closer to 15 then it will make a big difference. Against Killie we only had 8 shots.
Of course you need to get into the positions to take the shots, but I think there’s a case to be made on shot selection and decision making at the crucial time. Just look at the game vs. Celtic. Two of the best openings (Dabbagh early on, Keskinen early second half), did not result in shots.
The other Top Six
Speaking of which, the success of our season I believe will rely on the contributions of the following six attacking players: Kevin Nisbet, Oday Dabbagh, Pape Gueye, Topi Keskinen, Jeppe Okkels and Shayden Morris.
We’re going to need around 15 goals. Let’s say the midfield pop up with the odd one and we grab a couple from set-pieces, one or two of those lads is going to have to find the back of the net on a consistent basis.
It’s not unrealistic. Nisbet is contributing and improving, Keskinen continues to get himself into good positions, Dabbagh has had a decent start and Gueye is always a threat in the air. Morris is looking more like himself off the bench. We need more from Okkels.
The team has added mixed in more elements of chaos since the Hibs debacle and I don’t think the subsequent loss of control has impacted. Eg playing another striker versus Clarkson in the #10.
That will be important against United. A team quite happy to do most of their work inside the penalty box. As the last game against them proved, when you toss a coin, eventually it will fall on tails.
Aberdeen have given themselves a shot. They just need to take it.
COYR
Reading Recommendations
I’ve read a few pieces recently that I think factor into some of the debate we’ve had on Aberdeen’s playing style. See below if your interested in further reading starting with Miguel Delaney’s interview with Andoni Iraola.
