Saturday’s victory in the Scottish Cup means that no matter how the next five league matches go, one victory will ensure the Dons lift a trophy and attain guaranteed group stage European football. However, as much as we hope the present team can emulate their forebearers of 1970, 1984, and 1990 and defeat Celtic in the final, it would be nice to finish in third place in the league so we can just focus on winning an actual trophy at Hampden Park on May 24th.
Standing in our way are David Gray’s Hibernian. In case you haven’t read, Hibs have turned things around since they drew 3-3 with us in November. Aberdeen have picked up one point from nine and conceded eight in the three fixtures this season. Hibs are three points ahead and a lot of goals. Win on Saturday and it’s all about who can pick up the most points against the other four top-6 teams. Lose and attention turns to Dundee Utd.
Let’s take a closer look at the Leith side.
I wrote about some lessons we could take from the Hearts game into this weekend in the P&J this week: Read More
Line-Up
I won’t profess to be a Hibs expert and have not seen them play much since our last outing. I would recommend this preview from John Greechan of the Edinburgh News. For those of you who have a bit more time on your hands, the Hibs Observer does some great tactical breakdowns of Hibs matches. The recent one against Dundee is linked here, and I’ll refer back to the Rangers game later.
Hibs Personnel
Below is how Hibs lined up against Dundee, mapped out against Aberdeen’s 4-2-3-1. I’ve moved some of the players into positions they may take up when they have the ball.
Nicky Cadden so dangerous all season, has not recoverd his starting spot following his injury, and Jordan Obita has been playing on the left side. Dylan Levitt at central midfield and Mykola Kukharevych up top have also gained starting spots in recent weeks and our old pal Junior Hoillet has started the last four games.
There’s a real balance to the Hibs team: Strength in defence, midfielders who can play and do the dirty things, width and good delivery, and a mix of craft and pace up front. Their underlying numbers are good and have been all season. According to Fotmob’s xG table, Hibs are right where they should be, whilst ourselves and United are both significantly overperforming.
In their last outing v Dundee, Kieron Bowie came off the bench and bagged two, one of which was an assist from Nicky Cadden, a sub. The other second half goal came via Dwight Gayle, also a sub. Josh Campbell, often a scourge to Aberdeen has not been starting games either. Hibs have got some depth to change things if it’s not working out.
Danger from wide areas
The Cabbage have certainly caused Aberdeen problems with crosses this season. Both goals at Easter Road in the 2-0 defeat earlier in the year came from wide deliveries, plus Nicky Cadden’s great goal at Pittodrie. We also saw on Saturday that Aberdeen failed to stop a cross from James Penrice, which led to Lawrence Shankland’s goal.
They also tend to overload wide areas, with the wing backs pushing on, strikers making runs in behind full-backs and Hoillet (assuming he plays) drifting out to the wing. All of this is going to cause challenges for Alexander Jensen and Alfie Dorrington.
At Easter Road, Aberdeen’s shape descended into a 6-2-2 at times. I can’t see that happening this time around, but those wide men do pose a real challenge as to who picks them up.
In addition, Hibs are strong from setpieces, scoring 15 goals this season and having the second highest setpiece xG in the league at 0.32 per game.
How will Hibs Press?
I always think that this is an interesting question and 80% of the content in this blog probably covers the first third of the football pitch. There are two possible scenarios here and I think one would be more preferred than the other from an Aberdeen perspective.
Hibs go high
Hearts did this and Ross County did this, and of most relevance, Hibs did this at Pittodrie.
Hibs won that game 3-1, but the Dons did create quite a few openings in that space around the halfway line beyond the press. Keskinen played on the left that day and had one of his best performances.
With potentially Morris and Keskinen in the team and Gueye as a focal point higher up the field, as well as two centre-backs more comfortable on the ball, I think Thelin would be quite happy if Hibs squeeze high.
For that reason, I think the visitors might go with option two.
Hibs mid-block
I mentioned the Hibs Observer previously. Here’s the video of their analysis of their performance at Ibrox, starting at the discussion on Hibs out of possession.
In that game, Hibs were in a mid-block around the halfway line in a 5-2-3 shape. Passes were denied centrally and when the ball went out to the full-backs either Hoillet or Boyle pressed. See animation below.
There’s still scope for Aberdeen to find gaps in this system and I would think it would involve Clarkson dropping into the back three.
When Raskin did this in for the Rangers, Kukharevych would then press. I think this, like at the weekend, like against County, with Clarkson dropping in may well be the Aberdeen response. Hoillet is likely to be unable to cover the ground as quickly as Boyle, so Dorrington and Jensen become important in bringing the ball forward. Mind you, Hibs did a right job on Nilsen at Easter Road in the first match. No guarantees ‘Leights’ will be able to get on the ball.
Option 3 of course is that Hibs drop real deep like their Gorgie brethren and force Aberdeen to break them down and play on the break. Based on what we’ve seen this may not be a bad idea, especially at a packed Pittodrie and Aberdeen needing a win.
Aberdeen Selection Questions
I think the biggest question will be whether Morris starts the game (back to that old chestnut). If Nicky Cadden was likely playing, I’d be more inclined to go with Keskinen and Okkels, or even McGrath (controversial); however, I don’t think Obita offers the same threat.
Morris was brilliant at Easter Road when he came on in the 3-3, but I think I’d stick with him from the beginning here. We’re at home, we have to win, and getting off to a good start will be important (Hibs are the only team who’ve beaten us this year when we’ve scored first). Plus, there’s the knock-on effect of moving Keskinen, who is growing each week in that left role. Same team for me.
It is likely to be a bit of a disjointed performance. We’ll see some longer balls, some Gueye miscontrols, maybe a lot of passing around the back four. We just need to be patient, and hopefully the moment will come.
What’s the verdict?
This really will be an interesting one. I’m looking forward to seeing Hibs again and it would be great to end their unbeaten run and sow the seeds of doubt for the remaining league matches.
However, I still think there are some major concerns on the team as the last few weeks have illustrated. I’ve got to be honest, I’m pretty wary about this match. It would be a brilliant result if we get the three points.
Enjoy the match,
COYR
P.S. Game recaps of all three previous matches below.
