Dundee United Preview (H)
Respect the opponent
Aberdeen entertain Dundee United at Saturday tea-time in front of another full-house at Pittodrie. A win, or a draw, will ensure the Dons finish the day on top of the SPFL further to Celtic’s trip to Fir Park on Sunday. Jim Goodwin returns to Pittodrie for the first time since he was relieved of his position as Aberdeen manager in late January of 2023.
It is a game (and I will make this the last time I reference this topic) that makes a mockery of the idea that only trips to Parkhead are a test. It is the epitome of a bread and butter SPFL game, that managers live and die by. It will involve a totally different approach from the week previous in a totally different environment. There will be expectations to be fulfilled on Saturday.
Though his ‘one bad week’ was unforgivable, and I don’t mean to rewrite history, there was a reason (whether it was right or wrong) that Jim Goodwin got the Aberdeen job. His St. Mirren team was generally hard to beat, well organised and on their day, capable of giving bigger teams a bloody nose. By hook or by crook, he got United back into the Premiership (although he bears some responsibility for getting them relegated) and he’s made a solid start to life back in the top flight.
How are United doing?
Pretty good actually. They are in 4th position on 15pts, two clear of Motherwell and only one behind Aberdeen’s opponents this coming Wednesday. It is Rangers, for whom Dundee United have suffered their only loss of the season, a 1-0 defeat on the 15th of September and they sit with four wins, three draws and that one loss.
Late drama has been a feature of their campaign, none more so than this past weekend against Hibs, when they turned around a 2-1 deficit to win 3-2 with two goals in stoppage time. They are yet to lose away from home having defeated St. Mirren and Hearts on their travels and secured a point versus Kilmarnock and Ross County.
Team News
Dundee United have a lengthy injury list with their two regular central midfielders Craig Sibbald and Ross Graham out. Kristijan Trapanovski one of their two North Macedonian imports may well return to the side that faced Hibernian, likely in place of youngster Miller Thomson.
Tactically, the only question may be whether Dundee United opt to go with a 3-5-2 over their 3-4-3 in which case Jort van der Sande may partner Sam Dalby up front.
Style of Play
Goodwin has been able to implement the St. Mirren style of play again at United, whereby he is not expected to play (at least for now) in a more expansive fashion. He also seems to have managed to fix a defence, just maybe not in a week, as United have only conceded nine goals, still over one per game, but only one more than Aberdeen.
As stated in the team news section, they have favoured a 3-4-3/3-4-2-1 this season but have been willing to adjust to a 3-5-2 to start or within games.
The selection of stats above shows some of the key elements of United’s approach. They will definitely look to keep it tight (more on that below) and will look to get the ball forward as much as possible. I wouldn’t expect them to spend too much time building out of the back.
They’ll look to try and win the ball back in midfield and break quickly. Their opening goal against Hibs is a good example of this with Glenn Middleton breaking down the left wing after the ball was picked off in midfield.
Aberdeen Line-Up
I expect Aberdeen will line up in their 4-2-3-1 and I’m pretty sure we could all name name most of the team. There has been a lot of discussion as to whether Duk or Ester Sokler will retain their spot after their performance at Celtic Park. They certainly would merit an opportunity.
If they did it would be Clarkson and Nisbet to drop out however I’m not certain this game presents the same tactical challenge as 2-0 down to Celtic away does. For that reason I would not be surprised to see the same starting XI as last week but we’ll trust the boss to make the right calls ahead of kick off.
Jimmy is adamant that he doesn’t look too far ahead but I do wonder that with three games in a week we may see Ante Palaversa start either tonight, or Wednesday.
Tactical Battle
I’ve take the names off this week as I got it wrong last week, but we should be looking at something like the above.
United’s Pressing Structure
Though United start with a 3-4-3 it appears to evolve into a 5-4-1 without the ball. See an image below from the Hibs game on Saturday.
Their line of confrontation is not necessarily too deep when the ball is in the opposing half and as shown in the goal example previously they’ll look to try and pick off forward passes when they travel through the lines.
I do feel there is an opportunity to exploit this with movement in behind the midfield four which I’ve tried to illustrate in the below but you can also see in the image above with the Hibs player standing in space in the centre circle.
The central idea is that if United choose to have their two central midfielders keep an eye on Shinnie and Nilsen then there is space available behind that line. They played their other North Macedonian, David Babunski as one of the central midfielders last week and I’m not certain he will be the most disciplined in that role, given he is typically played as a #10.
With their lack of pace stopping the back-line playing too high, there may be opportunities for McGrath tucking in and Clarkson (assuming he starts) plus the centre-forward to drop in and receive. This will usually result in one of the back-three going into an area they may prefer not to wander into, opening up space i behind.
We’ve seen examples of Aberdeen working on this up-back and through combo in recent weeks with Nisbet and Clarkson combining and Keskinen making a run in behind. The Hearts image below is a good example and this may be a method to try and break down United.
In order to do so it may require some patient possession at the back, recycling the ball before the gaps and movements appear. See how this may look in reality,
Breaking Down the Low Block
Once Aberdeen get the ball forward, and it may well be via the full-backs who will likely be the players left open by United as they stay compact, then, just as Aberdeen did at Celtic Park, the Arabs will drop deeper and get men behind the ball.
In some of the more recent games at home vs. Motherwell and Kilmarnock, Aberdeen were able to breach the first line of the press fairly easily, mainly because of deficiencies in the opponent's pressing structure. I think this might be harder against United and other than the potential listed above, and we may well have a situation where Aberdeen have to break down a deep defence.
The best opposition encountered so far in this regard were Ross County in Dingwall. They also played with a back three and worked very hard to put players under pressure when the ball entered their half from both the front and the back (i.e. recovering players who had been taken out with a pass). I have noticed Devlin and MacKenzie getting forward less against a back three so let’s see how they do this weekend. For reference: St. Johnstone (2nd half), St. Mirren, Ross County, Motherwell and Dundee all played with three central defenders.
Based on what we know of the coaching team, and despite what others may think, I do not believe in any way they will be unprepared for this scenario. In the review of the Spartans game, I identified four ways in which they worked on breaking down a low black. Since then the counter-press has become an even bigger part of their attacking arsenal. Those four ways were:
Ball recoveries: regaining the ball back from clearances e.g. corners, throw-ins and taking a quick shot or early cross
Counter pressing
Accurate long passes: this might be harder against United
Patient passing, overloads and wee bit of craft
I would also add penetration through dribbling, especially with the return of Duk to the fold and, of course, there will surely be set-piece opportunites.
Summary
It promises to be another wonderful night at Pittodrie. United have the potential to make this an awkward affair and their fanbase and manager would delight in being the ones to end the Dons unbeaten record.
I believe Jimmy and the coaching team have been working towards these games. Though Aberdeen have had success on the break there has been a concerted effort to be comfortable in possession. This may be an evolution in his coaching style from Elfsborg to adapt to the Scottish game with a team like Aberdeen or it may be something his teams always did, it just got the headlines less. Either way it’s one of the most positive elements of his reign so far, in my opinion, his adability to the opponent whilst retaining a core identity.
The sell-out crowd may need to be patient and trust in the process as I’m sure Dundee United will have entertainment as the least of their concerns. Thelin has shown a willingness to change the flow of the game with his substitutions and the Dons have a strong bench in which to impact the match. It’s a 90-minute game and they may need all of it, but hopefully, we can wake up the following morning with Aberdeen back at their rightful place, 3pts clear at the top of the Scottish Premiership.
Now that really would be, a beautiful Sunday.
COYR
Great read, particularly enjoy the animations for the potential plays.