Match Preview: Dundee (A)

Testing Season

Aberdeen travel to Dens Park looking for their twelfth win in a row and the chance to retain their 100% league record. Much continues to be made about the Dons soft start to the season, mainly from Glasgow-based media, however, this would appear to be the toughest fixture yet. Traditionally, Aberdeen enjoy a good record at Dens but have suffered two defeats and one draw in their last three visits. Those were different times however.

How are Dundee Doing?

Dundee are in a rare down period under Tony Docherty, winless in their last four and coming off two defeats on the bounce. They also lost captain and best player Luke McCowan to Celtic on deadline day.

In their previous outing in the league they fell to Ross County 2-0 in Dingwall, followed by a 3-0 defeat at Ibrox in the League Cup. They sit in 7th with six points on the board, having won one and drawn three of their opening five fixtures. The Taysiders have scored 9 (7.1xG) and conceded 9 (7.7xG). The underlying data, small as it is, seems to put them exactly where they are currently placed. 

Team News

Dundee are without Jordan McGhee at right back. Joe Shaughnessy is still injured but his fellow former Don Clark Robertson is available. Free transfer pick up Scott Fraser will also be in the squad but both he and Robertson have only had limited minutes of reserve football up until now, and may not be ready to start.

Players to watch

Ziyad Larkeche (Left Back) The Frenchman on loan from QPR has had a strong start to his time at Dundee, bagging a goal against St. Mirren. A good one v one defender he will keep Nicky Devlin honest.

Mohammed Sylla (Centre Midfield) Another Frenchman, Sylla joined Dundee last summer and has consistently been one of the stronger defensive midfielders in the league with great metrics on tackling, duels and interceptions. He will look to break up play when it enters the attacking third.

Lyall Cameron (Centre Midfield) The 21 year old enjoyed a breakout campaign in the Premiership last season and is likely to be the next Dundee player making a move to a higher level. Dangerous from outside the box, he already has two goals for the season and lies fourth in terms of chances created across the entire league.

Style of Play

On the ball, it’s quite hard to pin Dundee down as they’ve had some games with very high possession for (Dundee Utd and Ross County - neither wins) and some with a lot less (vs. Hearts). They average fifth in possession, third in shots on target per game. At 15.8% their shot conversion is second highest in the league (behind St. Mirren, just ahead of the Dons). 

The Dark Blues rank #1 in the league for PPDA (Passes per defensive action) with 8.24. This would suggest they are a high-pressing team. However this may be impacted by the loss of McGowan who ranked high in the league for ball recoveries. 

Against Rangers, Dundee were quite passive and struggled to deal with midfielders dropping deep to receive as well as stay close to the rotations from the Ibrox men. They pressed in a 4-2-3-1 with their line of confrontation just above the half-way line. In the Hearts game however, it was a much more aggressive press, right from the off. Dundee ended up with nine high recoveries in that game and their first and third goals were a direct result of winning the ball back high up the pitch.

As ever how the opposition chooses to press will be one of the most interesting things to note in the early stages. It could go two ways, Dundee might not want to risk over-committing and be happy to allow Aberdeen to have the ball in deeper areas. On the flip side, they may not want to let the Dons get comfortable and establish a foothold and look to press them from the off. 

The Dons have become a patient build-up team in recent weeks. If Dundee choose to have a go, and the game becomes one of high transitions, we may see some of those lightning counter-attacks we were promised.

Aberdeen Line-Up

The question all week has been whether Greame Shinnie returns to the team or if Thelin decides to stick with Palaversa and Nilsen. Both have been impressive but we should also remember that Shinnie has had a terrific start to the campaign. The captain provides a dynamism that compliments the deeper lying passer type of Nilsen or Palaversa. This could be valuable in Dundee.

It will be hard to drop Gueye, though he didn’t have quite the same impact on the right side v Spartans as he did against Motherwell in the central area where he had more freedom to roam. Still, those negatives are negated by Leighton Clarkson’s performance. I am no longer going to make any line-up predictions but I wouldn’t expect more than one or two changes from Saturday. In Jimmy we trust. I think, however, we can say with some confidence, it will be a 4-2-3-1.

Tactical Battle

Dundee have favoured a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 in their most recent games. Against St. Mirren at home (2-2 draw) Dundee they did play a 4-3-1-2 with Tiffoney in behind a front pairing of Murray and Main. This may be a route Docherty goes down again with his team looking to build confidence. Having hardworking and physical forwards to allow his side to bypass midfield and put Aberdeen under-pressure and get the home crowd going, may not be a bad idea. And we know, Curtis Main is inevitably going to score in this match if he plays. 

One final option would be a 3-5-2. Dundee started the season with this formation and employed it in a reserve match this week , with former Robertson at center back. 

If the two teams do employ the same formation as last week then this should allow Aberdeen to continue to build-up through their two holding midfielders as in theory this should be a 2v1, or a 4v2 if you include the two centre-backs. Dundee could of course bring their other central midfielder higher to match up but with the tendency of McGrath to come inside, this could leave space for the Dons to exploit. 

If it’s two strikers, it may be harder to build up the play. Ross County employed this well in Dingwall and it might be something for Tony Doc to take inspiration from.

The Left Side

Aberdeen’s most dangerous area is the left-side and this is where Rangers had the most success on Saturday. I would expect this to be another area of focus on Saturday.

Here’s an image below of how the Dons keep a lot of numbers in there to draw in the pressure. McGrath, Clarkson and Nilsen are all comfortable in tight spaces and able to combine. Jack MacKenzie has shown the intelligence to time his runs in behind. These combinations and runs will be worth keeping an eye on. It will be interesting to see how Dundee try to combat them.

Summary

Regardless of the result, we’ve seen more than enough from Thelin’s Dons to be confident of a good season. Winning this game against a top-6 side from last season, with a good coach, away from home however would be another milestone. It would set the team up perfectly for the home-match against Hearts. We won’t talk about the week after that yet.

I’m intrigued to see how Dundee approach this. Unfortunately there are no secrets in the league, so things Aberdeen are doing well will be observed and attempts will be made to stop them. So far this season, Thelin seems to be one step ahead of his opponents, who often have to adapt at half-time or sooner. If the Dons do get the advantage, expect in-game adjustments from Docherty.

Enjoy the game.

COYR.