Match Preview: Motherwell (H)
Can Aberdeen make it 10 from 10?
There’s a feeling, with perhaps the exception of next weeks cup clash with The Spartans, that every match brings a new test for Aberdeen and this weekend promises to be another.
Motherwell at home, traditionally would be marked in as a three points prior to the start of the season. Yet, since 2011 at Pittodrie in the league Aberdeen have won 10 matches to Motherwell’s 9, with four draws. Essentially a toss up.
It’s these bread and butter, Saturday 3pm games, that seem to define Aberdeen’s success, year on year. Picking up the full three points should be an expectation.
How are Motherwell looking?
Stuart Kettlewell’s side have won their last three league matches (Kilmarnock, Hearts & Saint Johnstone) with their only defeat coming at Hampden versus Rangers. They sit 5th in the actual table but are ahead of Aberdeen in the xG standings in 3rd place. This is by virtue of the Dons overperformance. Motherwell are meeting expectations.
The Steelmen have favoured a 3-4-2-1 formation. Out of possession this appears to shift into a 5-4-1 at least from the footage available from their match against Rangers. Their possession averages 38.1% which is perhaps understandable given difficult matches against Rangers and Hearts. However, in their last outing the ‘Well racked up 39% against Craig Levein’s St. Johnstone. In short, we can assume Aberdeen will have more of the ball in this match.
Of their six goals this season, four have come from set-pieces with one an own goal. A beauty from Robin Propper at the National Stadium. Their only true open play goal came courtesy of a gift-wrapped assist from Andres Salazar against Hearts.
Opposition Player to Watch: Lennon Miller
No surprises here. Miller is a generational talent and unlikely to be at Motherwell too long. His delivery from set-pieces as shown above (two of the four goals are Miller assists). He is playing in a slightly higher role this season as one of the two attacking midfielders. 6ft, he has the build of a man despite only turning 18 a couple of weeks ago. He is strong in the air, an accurate long passer and creates on average 2.89 chances per game.
Aberdeen Line-Up
The two line-up questions to consider from the team that started against Ross County are whether Leighton Clarkson returns and does Kevin Nisbet start up front. At the present time this would appear to be the strongest line-up on paper
Clarkson has yet to make a league appearance so far but looked great in the league cup matches. His absence was highlighted in the Ross County game and though Thelin did not admit it in his press conference, reading between the lines, I think there’s a good chance he will start. Nisbet also seems like he will probably get the start. Thelin is definitely loyal but Sokler has been given two starts and failed to take his opportunity in either.
Tactical Battle
Ross County seemed to strike a good balance last week of stopping the build out from the back with a high press but dropping back quickly in the event the press was broken or Aberdeen played outside them. As we noted Aberdeen struggled to break this down, just like they did against St. Johnstone when they moved to a 3-5-2 and Kilmarnock when they adapted to a 4-4-2.
If Motherwell choose to press high they have the numbers to do so and could use County’s tactics as model with one of the attacking midfielders pressing on the centre-backs and the other dropping in on Shinnie of Nilsen.
Whether they will do so, I don’t know and this is all part of the fun of getting to see a team play for the first time. They do have a high number of regains in the opponents half but those may be from second balls from their own, direct possession. If they allow the centre-forward (probably Zach Robinson or Mosis Ebiye) to shuttle between Molloy and Rubezic and focus the two attacking mids on Shinnie and Nilsen, then Aberdeen’s out ball becomes MacKenzie or Devlin. In which case I can see quick combinations with McGrath (most likely inside) and Keskinen (most likely to the outside) as being key to allow Aberdeen to progress forward.
If Motherwell adopt 5-4-1 resting defence, this is where the experiments with Shinnie dropping in to the right back spot pay dividends. By dropping into the back-line he is likely to attract some pressure when he advances. The positions below are consistent from what we’ve seen when Aberedeen afforded time to get on the ball in their own half, so we have MacKenzie very high and McGrath drifting inside.
In the examples below, if the #9 of Motherwell makes a move, Shinnie can switch quickly to Molloy or Nilsen to open the play up. Alternatively, if pressure comes from the closest central midfielder, it may open up space for Clarkson to exploit, or a simple pass to Devlin.
I’m really hoping Clarkson returns as I think his creativity will be essential in creating a blueprint for these types of games. As we know it’s easier to destroy than create and the SPFL is not a breeding ground for adventurous coaching philosophies.
Summary
I am trying to balance my natural pessimism, combined with a feeling that this run must come to an end, with my faith in Thelin. He’s had some extra time on the training ground and on paper, the starting line-up should be stronger, whether that’s with Nisbet and/or Clarkson starting. Either one would be an improvement on Gueye or Sokler.
I’m wary of Motherwell’s strength from set-plays and think this one might be closer than expected if they can stifle Aberdeen for long periods. The first goal will be crucial, and if the Dons can get it, I think we can look forward to maintaining our spot in second place, assuming Hearts don’t cause an upset at Celtic Park. Aye, me neither.
Stand Free.